{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4d18c06c-74ad-4d74-beaf-9edbc822786c", "symbol": "CMOE", "name": "Invesco Bloomberg Commodity UCITS ETF EUR Hedged", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 49.146, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 34.969, "architecture_energy": 33.21, "architecture_maturity": 36.655, "architecture_confidence": 46.523, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.36, "rotation_up": 60.08, "upward_expansion": 65.63, "deceleration": 68.12, "rotation_down": 9.13, "downward_expansion": 11.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 65.134666, 64.046909, 64.759857, 64.648581 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 65.099998, "trend_reference": 63.634667, "distance_from_trend": 0.023027, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 51.637416, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.260714, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.584712, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.121834, "excess_performance": -0.049058, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.023027, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056019, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.260714, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0952, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.045847, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.135664, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.121834, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.913068, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7682, "relative_activity": 0.88677, "balance": 0.913068, "dry_up": 0.793932, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030722, "annualized_volatility": 0.180033, "from_high_reference": -0.080379, "from_low_reference": 0.342822 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 63.634667, "fair_value_reference": 51.637416, "structural_low": 56.27, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.028321, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.0129, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.068361, "worst_return": -0.050463, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.016088, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.015444, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.124932, "worst_return": -0.043494, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.016544, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.046917, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.164756, "worst_return": -0.050342, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028822, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.041769, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.007789, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.01976, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009004, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019394, "active": 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63.637636, 64.806953, 64.388645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 65.139999, "volume": 5987, "typical_volume": 8704.2, "trend": 63.3, "fair_value": 51.532512, "relative_strength": -1.653085, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.348554, "energy": 27.22137, "activity_lines": [ 64.734, 63.817636, 64.783667, 64.532452 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 65.099998, "volume": 7682, "typical_volume": 8662.9, "trend": 63.634667, "fair_value": 51.637416, "relative_strength": -4.584712, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.969126, "energy": 33.209529, "activity_lines": [ 65.134666, 64.046909, 64.759857, 64.648581 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }