{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4d1adc11-431f-4fff-b39f-05dad10c9a42", "symbol": "ALKIM", "name": "Alkim Alkali Kimya A.S.", "exchange": "IST", "country": "TR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-09-11", "benchmark": "XU100.IS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.492, "architecture_energy": 50.406, "architecture_maturity": 34.45, "architecture_confidence": 94.081, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.09, "rotation_up": 22.88, "upward_expansion": 7.79, "deceleration": 56.25, "rotation_down": 55.27, "downward_expansion": 81.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.716, 15.867091, 16.572381, 17.077871 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 15.99, "trend_reference": 17.5, "distance_from_trend": -0.086286, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.728846, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.09808, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.924073, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.020221, "excess_performance": -0.125193, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.086286, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050719, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.09808, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084186, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.219241, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042065, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.020221, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.807816, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10762487, "relative_activity": 1.832649, "balance": 0.807816, "dry_up": 1.529934, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059653, "annualized_volatility": 0.341202, "from_high_reference": -0.368982, "from_low_reference": 0.055446 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.5, "fair_value_reference": 17.728846, "structural_low": 15.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.028139, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.009866, "regime_survival": 0.65, "best_return": 0.277626, "worst_return": -0.064865, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.083522, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": 0.078854, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.534968, "worst_return": -0.124024, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.194943, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.091923, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.344595, "worst_return": -0.062228, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.136808, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.126071, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.215755, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.077493, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.068493, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.047968, "active": false }, { 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17.619656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 15.89, "volume": 10233566, "typical_volume": 7417321.9, "trend": 17.874667, "fair_value": 17.823718, "relative_strength": -24.250256, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.584489, "energy": 81.843873, "activity_lines": [ 15.843333, 16.383091, 17.145048, 17.482215 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "close": 15.7, "volume": 7600772, "typical_volume": 6460818.35, "trend": 17.751333, "fair_value": 17.796474, "relative_strength": -25.349584, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.166757, "energy": 77.989134, "activity_lines": [ 15.756, 16.158727, 16.942095, 17.341914 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "close": 15.3, "volume": 7342185, "typical_volume": 6117497.6, "trend": 17.631333, "fair_value": 17.756923, "relative_strength": -23.405267, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.549527, "energy": 76.212327, "activity_lines": [ 15.612667, 15.925273, 16.714714, 17.183764 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "close": 15.99, "volume": 10762487, "typical_volume": 5872639.25, "trend": 17.5, "fair_value": 17.728846, "relative_strength": -21.924073, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.492389, "energy": 50.40589, "activity_lines": [ 15.716, 15.867091, 16.572381, 17.077871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }