{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4d1b09e9-8114-4477-b472-fc0b09a640f2", "symbol": "MLYS", "name": "Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -27.738, "architecture_energy": 13.596, "architecture_maturity": 10.636, "architecture_confidence": 79.666, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.77, "rotation_up": 25.47, "upward_expansion": 13.81, "deceleration": 47.99, "rotation_down": 36.56, "downward_expansion": 63.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.768, 26.668364, 27.060667, 27.171011 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 27.35, "trend_reference": 27.734, "distance_from_trend": -0.013846, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.396795, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.486672, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.391189, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.08129, "excess_performance": -0.268744, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.013846, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.126919, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.486672, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.210985, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.233912, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.124819, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.08129, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.171167, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3029594, "relative_activity": 0.47697, "balance": 1.171167, "dry_up": 0.489406, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.124497, "annualized_volatility": 0.620913, "from_high_reference": -0.426023, "from_low_reference": 1.172359 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.734, "fair_value_reference": 18.396795, "structural_low": 22.3, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.013532, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.027038, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.201524, "worst_return": -0.222309, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.027451, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.126384, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.073463, "worst_return": -0.081412, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.942188, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.852782, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.991004, "worst_return": -0.106628, "sufficient": false }, { 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"gate": "down", "direction": -27.124797, "energy": 14.701076, "activity_lines": [ 27.274, 26.789273, 27.180714, 27.38643 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.52, "volume": 3108370, "typical_volume": 6636799.7, "trend": 27.934667, "fair_value": 18.30359, "relative_strength": -24.431501, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.054865, "energy": 14.925714, "activity_lines": [ 26.677333, 26.523091, 27.031952, 27.208731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.35, "volume": 3029594, "typical_volume": 6351744.35, "trend": 27.734, "fair_value": 18.396795, "relative_strength": -23.391189, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.737964, "energy": 13.596257, "activity_lines": [ 26.768, 26.668364, 27.060667, 27.171011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }