{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4d1e27e1-5c9b-4b04-8d41-01b127693aa4", "symbol": "BOOT", "name": "Boot Barn Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.136, "architecture_energy": 42.174, "architecture_maturity": 6.004, "architecture_confidence": 88.052, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.72, "rotation_up": 15.01, "upward_expansion": 9.52, "deceleration": 39.18, "rotation_down": 61.88, "downward_expansion": 82.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 155.338, 158.942182, 160.837619, 162.611118 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 163.6, "trend_reference": 167.803333, "distance_from_trend": -0.025049, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 137.403654, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.190652, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.576883, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.195594, "excess_performance": -0.321219, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.025049, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052658, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.190652, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056988, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.165769, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004787, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.195594, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.034445, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3749279, "relative_activity": 1.057583, "balance": 1.034445, "dry_up": 1.076425, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.099962, "annualized_volatility": 0.488524, "from_high_reference": -0.221879, "from_low_reference": 0.228415 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 167.803333, "fair_value_reference": 137.403654, "structural_low": 133.1797, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.009331, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": 0.012424, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.412547, "worst_return": -0.133815, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.042667, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.025936, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.517864, "worst_return": -0.291237, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.393104, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.317769, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.727297, "worst_return": -0.378675, "sufficient": false }, { 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"regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.91025, "energy": 12.261278, "activity_lines": [ 165.921333, 165.964545, 163.735857, 166.991871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 152.47, "volume": 2811403, "typical_volume": 3407289.5, "trend": 171.327, "fair_value": 136.291859, "relative_strength": -20.35169, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.35114, "energy": 26.588102, "activity_lines": [ 160.654, 163.856727, 162.672143, 165.692172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 149.98, "volume": 3391444, "typical_volume": 3457149.95, "trend": 170.127, "fair_value": 136.645833, "relative_strength": -20.752428, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.712712, "energy": 42.670013, "activity_lines": [ 155.766, 161.493091, 161.546286, 164.314946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 148.99, "volume": 5312181, "typical_volume": 3561364.7, "trend": 168.872333, "fair_value": 136.96609, "relative_strength": -21.667659, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.01586, "energy": 56.281329, "activity_lines": [ 152.164, 158.838, 160.460238, 162.951269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 163.6, "volume": 3749279, "typical_volume": 3545140.5, "trend": 167.803333, "fair_value": 137.403654, "relative_strength": -16.576883, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.136464, "energy": 42.173925, "activity_lines": [ 155.338, 158.942182, 160.837619, 162.611118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }