{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4d2d2d38-1605-4c87-a55f-2122a68649f4", "symbol": "5487", "name": "Tontek Design Technology Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 58.443, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 33.921, "architecture_energy": 14.822, "architecture_maturity": 18.301, "architecture_confidence": 43.88, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.68, "rotation_up": 39.72, "upward_expansion": 61.42, "deceleration": 56.44, "rotation_down": 20.22, "downward_expansion": 13.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.673333, 28.673637, 28.452381, 28.344731 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 28.75, "trend_reference": 28.311667, "distance_from_trend": 0.015482, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 31.060256, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.07438, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -30.437438, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.039783, "excess_performance": -0.401589, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.015482, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013302, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.07438, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046965, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.304374, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.090185, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.039783, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.686814, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 346087, "relative_activity": 0.938443, "balance": 0.686814, "dry_up": 1.057589, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 7 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06796, "annualized_volatility": 0.213942, "from_high_reference": -0.102964, "from_low_reference": 0.127451 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.311667, "fair_value_reference": 31.060256, "structural_low": 25.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.025611, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.036674, "regime_survival": 0.55, "best_return": 0.183835, "worst_return": -0.067857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.01634, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.050655, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.116438, "worst_return": -0.1, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.015692, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.089915, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.285959, "worst_return": -0.121805, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.094599, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.187867, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.460952, "worst_return": -0.234733, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2023-12-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2023-12-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.052459, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-01-05", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.042705, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.121575, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.021021, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038835, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.02953, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.171756, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.04955, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", 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"2026-07-17", "close": 28.65, "volume": 526506, "typical_volume": 311799.85, "trend": 28.415, "fair_value": 31.008333, "relative_strength": -29.527967, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.453922, "energy": 18.982377, "activity_lines": [ 28.776667, 28.437273, 28.293095, 28.28172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.200001, "volume": 474000, "typical_volume": 332549.85, "trend": 28.4, "fair_value": 31.020513, "relative_strength": -31.272487, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.405732, "energy": 11.5844, "activity_lines": [ 28.566667, 28.45, 28.29881, 28.267849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.9, "volume": 364020, "typical_volume": 344600.05, "trend": 28.378333, "fair_value": 31.036538, "relative_strength": -27.673328, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.197165, "energy": 9.143361, "activity_lines": [ 28.676667, 28.571818, 28.36881, 28.300108 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.65, "volume": 376000, "typical_volume": 356835.9, "trend": 28.33, "fair_value": 31.047115, "relative_strength": -29.105485, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.956865, "energy": 8.051764, "activity_lines": [ 28.63, 28.625455, 28.409048, 28.317634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 28.75, "volume": 346087, "typical_volume": 368788.65, "trend": 28.311667, "fair_value": 31.060256, "relative_strength": -30.437438, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.920883, "energy": 14.821905, "activity_lines": [ 28.673333, 28.673637, 28.452381, 28.344731 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }