{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4d31d799-db4c-438a-814b-874444aa9a49", "symbol": "ELTK", "name": "Eltek Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 66.417, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 6.256, "architecture_energy": 6.883, "architecture_maturity": 17.129, "architecture_confidence": 41.05, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 74.66, "rotation_up": 19.22, "upward_expansion": 23.21, "deceleration": 74.4, "rotation_down": 37.75, "downward_expansion": 22.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.796667, 8.959264, 8.886368, 8.833331 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 8.85, "trend_reference": 8.815103, "distance_from_trend": 0.003959, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.311922, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.14177, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.576322, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.047337, "excess_performance": -0.140116, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.003959, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01035, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.14177, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072523, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.175763, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.135874, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.047337, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.787558, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 107603, "relative_activity": 3.016806, "balance": 0.787558, "dry_up": 1.862861, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.140622, "annualized_volatility": 0.298927, "from_high_reference": -0.236411, "from_low_reference": 0.212329 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.815103, "fair_value_reference": 10.311922, "structural_low": 7.3, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.034786, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": -0.014315, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.098329, "worst_return": -0.084423, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.026125, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.020732, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.072831, "worst_return": -0.076498, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.100737, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.070148, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.029197, "worst_return": -0.125573, "sufficient": false 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"label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003529, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.206122, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.011823, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.051223, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034483, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", 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27.375968, "energy": 38.198681, "activity_lines": [ 9.3023, 9.091091, 8.853539, 8.82244 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 9.0, "volume": 16132, "typical_volume": 25699.05, "trend": 8.80827, "fair_value": 10.285437, "relative_strength": -18.915071, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.016816, "energy": 29.683773, "activity_lines": [ 9.21864, 9.111398, 8.873929, 8.833842 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.99, "volume": 12600, "typical_volume": 25770.05, "trend": 8.81127, "fair_value": 10.287588, "relative_strength": -14.90819, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.762512, "energy": 18.073126, "activity_lines": [ 9.124313, 9.126796, 8.892413, 8.845566 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.94, "volume": 122958, "typical_volume": 30374.3, "trend": 8.822603, "fair_value": 10.294972, "relative_strength": -13.408366, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.09494, "energy": 13.982814, "activity_lines": [ 9.03732, 9.116467, 8.906136, 8.853872 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.475, "volume": 22616, "typical_volume": 30782.5, "trend": 8.82077, "fair_value": 10.304868, "relative_strength": -17.651131, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.045596, "energy": 11.486075, "activity_lines": [ 8.826993, 9.004684, 8.876811, 8.831446 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.85, "volume": 107603, "typical_volume": 35667.85, "trend": 8.815103, "fair_value": 10.311922, "relative_strength": -17.576322, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 6.255536, "energy": 6.88305, "activity_lines": [ 8.796667, 8.959264, 8.886368, 8.833331 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }