{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4d3c1b6e-4b81-4420-9425-c13e115cd229", "symbol": "SPG", "name": "Siam Pan Group Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 76.558, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 59.334, "architecture_energy": 49.55, "architecture_maturity": 5.212, "architecture_confidence": 65.307, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.82, "rotation_up": 64.28, "upward_expansion": 84.79, "deceleration": 45.74, "rotation_down": 12.66, "downward_expansion": 9.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.233333, 11.092727, 10.940476, 10.908234 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 11.3, "trend_reference": 10.863763, "distance_from_trend": 0.040155, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.129882, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.068416, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.214724, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.088226, "excess_performance": -0.104099, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.040155, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013258, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.068416, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066557, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.112147, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057334, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.088226, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.20235, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2000, "relative_activity": 0.222346, "balance": 0.20235, "dry_up": 0.216787, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044929, "annualized_volatility": 0.290312, "from_high_reference": -0.070822, "from_low_reference": 0.118455 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.863763, "fair_value_reference": 12.129882, "structural_low": 10.2, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.010269, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.027778, "worst_return": -0.088608, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.007101, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.011215, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.014022, "worst_return": -0.094937, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.022085, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.006617, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.025, "worst_return": -0.120253, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"activity_lines": [ 10.84, 10.805455, 10.770138, 10.78145 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 11.0, "volume": 3000, "typical_volume": 49925.0, "trend": 10.739355, "fair_value": 12.195423, "relative_strength": -15.895811, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.375576, "energy": 35.460357, "activity_lines": [ 10.92, 10.843636, 10.786759, 10.799993 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.0, "volume": 3300, "typical_volume": 25605.0, "trend": 10.763011, "fair_value": 12.177756, "relative_strength": -16.400147, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.177923, "energy": 35.487117, "activity_lines": [ 10.966667, 10.876364, 10.806682, 10.816809 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.0, "volume": 1900, "typical_volume": 22195.0, "trend": 10.789785, "fair_value": 12.160088, "relative_strength": -16.050924, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.803638, "energy": 38.405376, "activity_lines": [ 11.0, 10.903636, 10.826344, 10.832098 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.5, "volume": 600, "typical_volume": 20560.0, "trend": 10.830107, "fair_value": 12.145626, "relative_strength": -10.700776, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.554383, "energy": 55.513326, "activity_lines": [ 11.166667, 11.021818, 10.89381, 10.877919 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.3, "volume": 2000, "typical_volume": 8995.0, "trend": 10.863763, "fair_value": 12.129882, "relative_strength": -11.214724, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.333816, "energy": 49.549846, "activity_lines": [ 11.233333, 11.092727, 10.940476, 10.908234 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }