{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4d3df593-dc63-4070-8ab2-57b2269f5e38", "symbol": "KTF", "name": "DWS Municipal Income Trust", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 89.617, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -11.924, "architecture_energy": 23.329, "architecture_maturity": 26.802, "architecture_confidence": 59.855, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.81, "rotation_up": 17.06, "upward_expansion": 17.11, "deceleration": 69.59, "rotation_down": 55.43, "downward_expansion": 37.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.93953, 9.01338, 9.016646, 8.99632 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 8.98, "trend_reference": 8.964716, "distance_from_trend": 0.001705, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.230754, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.09103, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.372595, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.006045, "excess_performance": -0.11958, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.001705, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010788, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.09103, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02259, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.093726, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021416, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.006045, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.498418, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1488402, "relative_activity": 1.983491, "balance": 0.498418, "dry_up": 1.710557, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016859, "annualized_volatility": 0.092625, "from_high_reference": -0.026759, "from_low_reference": 0.121155 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.964716, "fair_value_reference": 8.230754, "structural_low": 8.623018, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.026046, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.006203, "regime_survival": 0.5625, "best_return": 0.09144, "worst_return": -0.080349, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.013723, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.023525, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.017917, "worst_return": -0.149417, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.039431, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.072014, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.001085, "worst_return": -0.235481, "sufficient": false }, 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020221, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.007078, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.052995, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006337, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.001356, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": 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8.940196, "fair_value": 8.181932, "relative_strength": -6.067828, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.008788, "energy": 67.142258, "activity_lines": [ 9.151498, 9.099138, 9.037134, 8.999773 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.107716, "volume": 899885, "typical_volume": 630497.0, "trend": 8.953517, "fair_value": 8.194653, "relative_strength": -4.826012, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.888587, "energy": 60.57182, "activity_lines": [ 9.141459, 9.10973, 9.047727, 9.010581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.84, "volume": 930822, "typical_volume": 652797.3, "trend": 8.957914, "fair_value": 8.205762, "relative_strength": -6.99109, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.510859, "energy": 9.807643, "activity_lines": [ 9.041652, 9.0693, 9.032522, 9.003257 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.83, "volume": 1815264, "typical_volume": 722287.2, "trend": 8.95962, "fair_value": 8.217751, "relative_strength": -7.925229, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.214336, "energy": 22.693575, "activity_lines": [ 8.953685, 9.027599, 9.017152, 8.995005 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.98, "volume": 1488402, "typical_volume": 750394.95, "trend": 8.964716, "fair_value": 8.230754, "relative_strength": -9.372595, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.923674, "energy": 23.32881, "activity_lines": [ 8.93953, 9.01338, 9.016646, 8.99632 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }