{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4d49cdd2-2cd1-4547-bbd9-df86bd4f4104", "symbol": "MTC2", "name": "Match Group, Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 94.515, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 62.995, "architecture_energy": 52.08, "architecture_maturity": 39.983, "architecture_confidence": 70.373, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.96, "rotation_up": 59.37, "upward_expansion": 83.59, "deceleration": 64.21, "rotation_down": 22.54, "downward_expansion": 7.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.372667, 33.026046, 32.046202, 30.914248 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 32.150002, "trend_reference": 29.42296, "distance_from_trend": 0.092684, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.788612, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.079272, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.34632, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.21453, "excess_performance": 0.040283, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.092684, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055228, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.079272, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051004, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.103463, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039557, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.21453, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.550388, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 510, "relative_activity": 7.522124, "balance": 1.550388, "dry_up": 1.884218, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052648, "annualized_volatility": 0.249638, "from_high_reference": -0.102707, "from_low_reference": 0.286398 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.42296, "fair_value_reference": 29.788612, "structural_low": 24.992266, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.039666, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.050895, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.109628, "worst_return": -0.138314, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.066399, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.136382, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.036595, "worst_return": -0.273482, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.167301, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.312065, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.162206, "worst_return": -0.169868, "sufficient": false }, { 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28.258051, "fair_value": 30.001722, "relative_strength": -9.704942, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.296549, "energy": 45.732835, "activity_lines": [ 30.858814, 30.80628, 29.885474, 29.048655 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 33.049999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2.35, "trend": 28.390241, "fair_value": 29.979112, "relative_strength": -8.366122, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.773831, "energy": 67.4467, "activity_lines": [ 31.644504, 31.206286, 30.290139, 29.357813 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 34.169998, "volume": 799, "typical_volume": 42.3, "trend": 28.598529, "fair_value": 29.935734, "relative_strength": -3.781456, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.690323, "energy": 85.726089, "activity_lines": [ 32.674861, 31.76702, 30.764589, 29.730701 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 34.07, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 42.3, "trend": 28.817282, "fair_value": 29.902426, "relative_strength": -2.006901, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.588877, "energy": 90.232617, "activity_lines": [ 33.379536, 32.267936, 31.192287, 30.083699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.849998, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 42.3, "trend": 29.030016, "fair_value": 29.865892, "relative_strength": -3.66703, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.23245, "energy": 86.262381, "activity_lines": [ 33.735797, 32.673306, 31.563721, 30.40839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.994999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 42.3, "trend": 29.274194, "fair_value": 29.831981, "relative_strength": -2.883797, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.006893, "energy": 80.863641, "activity_lines": [ 33.931665, 33.046039, 31.911843, 30.728712 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.150002, "volume": 510, "typical_volume": 67.8, "trend": 29.42296, "fair_value": 29.788612, "relative_strength": -10.34632, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.994533, "energy": 52.079565, "activity_lines": [ 33.372667, 33.026046, 32.046202, 30.914248 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }