{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4d4afb54-9a3a-474b-82b6-b214e46af79e", "symbol": "RXL", "name": "Rexel S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 86.492, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 38.108, "architecture_energy": 20.806, "architecture_maturity": 65.252, "architecture_confidence": 76.567, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.87, "rotation_up": 36.31, "upward_expansion": 65.88, "deceleration": 80.9, "rotation_down": 28.07, "downward_expansion": 15.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.289999, 37.488545, 37.126312, 36.429436 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 37.509998, "trend_reference": 35.660759, "distance_from_trend": 0.051856, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.847244, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.451218, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.77788, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.030509, "excess_performance": -0.022802, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.051856, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061803, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.451218, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069863, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.067779, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.160607, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.030509, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.939259, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2490756, "relative_activity": 0.885765, "balance": 0.939259, "dry_up": 1.266875, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050469, "annualized_volatility": 0.312691, "from_high_reference": -0.057538, "from_low_reference": 0.486053 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.660759, "fair_value_reference": 25.847244, "structural_low": 29.687172, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.015411, "positive_rate": 0.558824, "directional_follow_through": 0.558824, "median_excess_return": 0.006968, "regime_survival": 0.735294, "best_return": 0.126413, "worst_return": -0.1625, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.018812, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.047604, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.308381, "worst_return": -0.128939, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.112561, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.059487, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.31301, "worst_return": -0.156294, "sufficient": true }, { 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34.969148, "fair_value": 25.385781, "relative_strength": 16.502792, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.864551, "energy": 56.437139, "activity_lines": [ 37.882, 37.464363, 36.531587, 35.877373 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 38.59, "volume": 3165633, "typical_volume": 2867753.95, "trend": 35.196171, "fair_value": 25.506338, "relative_strength": 16.53813, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.750443, "energy": 57.580071, "activity_lines": [ 38.211334, 37.709454, 36.820793, 36.110976 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 37.630001, "volume": 3984344, "typical_volume": 2844791.1, "trend": 35.377956, "fair_value": 25.619832, "relative_strength": 12.520123, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.889061, "energy": 55.715808, "activity_lines": [ 38.076001, 37.751091, 37.004864, 36.267997 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.849998, "volume": 4608983, "typical_volume": 2907637.65, "trend": 35.479745, "fair_value": 25.728785, "relative_strength": 5.02129, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.54103, "energy": 22.948061, "activity_lines": [ 37.372666, 37.461272, 36.995979, 36.298452 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.509998, "volume": 2490756, "typical_volume": 2811981.55, "trend": 35.660759, "fair_value": 25.847244, "relative_strength": 6.77788, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.108456, "energy": 20.806079, "activity_lines": [ 37.289999, 37.488545, 37.126312, 36.429436 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }