{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "4d4de17d-8492-4efb-8e45-e6f89460edaf",
    "symbol": "ORCH",
    "name": "Orchard Funding Group plc",
    "exchange": "LSE",
    "country": "GB",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FTSE",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 87.438,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 75.907,
    "architecture_energy": 77.683,
    "architecture_maturity": 10.506,
    "architecture_confidence": 75.935,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 13.37,
        "rotation_up": 80.54,
        "upward_expansion": 94.97,
        "deceleration": 39.78,
        "rotation_down": 9.63,
        "downward_expansion": 16.97
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        0.628,
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        0.588577,
        0.581686
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      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 1.0
    },
    "latest_close": 0.64,
    "trend_reference": 0.57849,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.106328,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 0.394645,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.621709,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 2.227678,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.066523,
    "excess_performance": 0.015287,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.106328,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.008902,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.621709,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.16186,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.022277,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.101064,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.066523,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 3.285045,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 125457,
      "relative_activity": 1.116156,
      "balance": 3.285045,
      "dry_up": 1.499637,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.04754,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.190442,
      "from_high_reference": -0.015385,
      "from_low_reference": 0.301157
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 0.57849,
      "fair_value_reference": 0.394645,
      "structural_low": 0.49187,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 13,
        "median_return": -0.01695,
        "positive_rate": 0.384615,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.384615,
        "median_excess_return": -0.03331,
        "regime_survival": 0.538462,
        "best_return": 0.364862,
        "worst_return": -0.253968,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 7,
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        "best_return": 0.701872,
        "worst_return": -0.15873,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": -0.047619,
        "positive_rate": 0.4,
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        "median_excess_return": -0.113976,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
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        "worst_return": -0.086121,
        "sufficient": true
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      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
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        "best_return": 1.048589,
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        "sufficient": false
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      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "stage": 3,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 119176.55,
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        "relative_strength": 0.999053,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 36.546051,
        "energy": 53.682269,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 209192,
        "typical_volume": 112485.25,
        "trend": 0.574515,
        "fair_value": 0.389434,
        "relative_strength": 0.28778,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 34.994448,
        "energy": 60.855967,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.605098,
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          0.570716,
          0.571171
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 0.625,
        "volume": 226738,
        "typical_volume": 113494.7,
        "trend": 0.575673,
        "fair_value": 0.391083,
        "relative_strength": 0.8827,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 45.118093,
        "energy": 66.915602,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.614694,
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          0.576367,
          0.574429
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 0.625,
        "volume": 112856,
        "typical_volume": 110826.5,
        "trend": 0.576832,
        "fair_value": 0.392788,
        "relative_strength": -0.053981,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 69.645513,
        "energy": 74.58611,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.620005,
          0.603815,
          0.581852,
          0.577611
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 0.64,
        "volume": 125457,
        "typical_volume": 112401.0,
        "trend": 0.57849,
        "fair_value": 0.394645,
        "relative_strength": 2.227678,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 75.906516,
        "energy": 77.68337,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.628,
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          0.588577,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}