{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4d55293e-c845-40e6-a4af-4952ad75f38d", "symbol": "VT", "name": "Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund ETF Shares", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 69.508, "architecture_energy": 42.057, "architecture_maturity": 50.137, "architecture_confidence": 84.502, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.88, "rotation_up": 42.2, "upward_expansion": 72.58, "deceleration": 91.13, "rotation_down": 28.56, "downward_expansion": 10.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 2727.536019, 2726.508856, 2702.018342, 2660.603769 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 2767.47998, "trend_reference": 2611.715975, "distance_from_trend": 0.05964, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2252.119143, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.228834, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.939488, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.10082, "excess_performance": 0.155487, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.05964, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022076, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.228834, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001075, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.049395, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.092925, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.10082, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.995073, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10696, "relative_activity": 1.14126, "balance": 2.995073, "dry_up": 0.814652, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021698, "annualized_volatility": 0.093574, "from_high_reference": -0.025472, "from_low_reference": 0.138899 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2611.715975, "fair_value_reference": 2252.119143, "structural_low": 2429.959961, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.00323, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.015171, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.111552, "worst_return": -0.060892, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.082602, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.145244, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.15144, "worst_return": -0.111161, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.009716, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.10246, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.293073, "worst_return": -0.206253, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.053621, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.030282, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008341, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.051724, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.028049, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.048692, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013603, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.000131, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.006692, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1608.64856, "volume": 442083, "typical_volume": 70262.0, "trend": 1659.280383, "fair_value": 1866.127006, "relative_strength": -6.566221, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 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"typical_volume": 9372.1, "trend": 2611.715975, "fair_value": 2252.119143, "relative_strength": 4.939488, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.508396, "energy": 42.056876, "activity_lines": [ 2727.536019, 2726.508856, 2702.018342, 2660.603769 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }