{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4d582fe8-4822-4842-9da0-689a5321c606", "symbol": "GCOM", "name": "Giglio.com S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 64.013, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 14.897, "architecture_energy": 30.719, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 40.845, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.09, "rotation_up": 51.73, "upward_expansion": 37.17, "deceleration": 44.49, "rotation_down": 19.35, "downward_expansion": 47.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.566733, 0.535473, 0.533267, 0.548239 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.6, "trend_reference": 0.595967, "distance_from_trend": 0.006768, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.286051, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.533456, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -33.942734, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.25, "excess_performance": -0.420892, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.006768, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.188977, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.533456, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062346, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.339427, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.092763, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.25, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.039735, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 110000, "relative_activity": 2.309954, "balance": 3.039735, "dry_up": 1.927761, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065128, "annualized_volatility": 0.461101, "from_high_reference": -0.491525, "from_low_reference": 0.304348 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.595967, "fair_value_reference": 1.286051, "structural_low": 0.46, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.034483, "positive_rate": 0.382353, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": -0.043543, "regime_survival": 0.882353, "best_return": 0.3, "worst_return": -0.27027, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.147177, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.227379, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.123596, "worst_return": -0.350649, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.260201, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.412477, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.146067, "worst_return": -0.378531, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.101064, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.155844, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.28125, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.134831, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.14, 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0.554609 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.565, "volume": 153600, "typical_volume": 54360.0, "trend": 0.619133, "fair_value": 1.30916, "relative_strength": -37.687221, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.139939, "energy": 42.761974, "activity_lines": [ 0.5046, 0.505709, 0.519924, 0.550299 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.595, "volume": 60000, "typical_volume": 46800.0, "trend": 0.6078, "fair_value": 1.297462, "relative_strength": -33.669359, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.052565, "energy": 12.303869, "activity_lines": [ 0.538333, 0.520545, 0.526452, 0.548742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.6, "volume": 110000, "typical_volume": 47620.0, "trend": 0.595967, "fair_value": 1.286051, "relative_strength": -33.942734, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 14.896793, "energy": 30.719343, "activity_lines": [ 0.566733, 0.535473, 0.533267, 0.548239 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }