{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4d590f58-737a-4743-a6ef-2cbdfeb2cda0", "symbol": "KAR", "name": "Karnov Group AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -17.978, "architecture_energy": 9.801, "architecture_maturity": 17.424, "architecture_confidence": 65.011, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.08, "rotation_up": 28.68, "upward_expansion": 18.39, "deceleration": 42.04, "rotation_down": 22.37, "downward_expansion": 52.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 70.559998, 69.559998, 69.887142, 70.775913 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 73.099998, "trend_reference": 74.163333, "distance_from_trend": -0.014338, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 80.032372, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.08662, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.491702, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.051881, "excess_performance": -0.113375, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.014338, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.125845, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.08662, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004976, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.274917, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066035, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.051881, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.011956, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 726521, "relative_activity": 0.647252, "balance": 1.011956, "dry_up": 0.727938, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.085657, "annualized_volatility": 0.408995, "from_high_reference": -0.4152, "from_low_reference": 0.22651 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 74.163333, "fair_value_reference": 80.032372, "structural_low": 59.599998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.021857, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.035727, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.197895, "worst_return": -0.071298, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.057199, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.016273, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.172632, "worst_return": -0.070934, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.187327, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.163449, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.378947, "worst_return": -0.077855, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.187141, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.112676, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.067949, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.045177, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.124402, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.15346, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.099099, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017612, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.28731, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 41.450001, "volume": 1967761, "typical_volume": 615140.8, "trend": 52.551667, "fair_value": 55.42792, "relative_strength": -24.747555, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": 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77.063333, "fair_value": 79.628526, "relative_strength": -30.550503, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.45403, "energy": 25.23378, "activity_lines": [ 68.726665, 68.894544, 69.844286, 71.857634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 68.099998, "volume": 415140, "typical_volume": 1144525.95, "trend": 76.016667, "fair_value": 79.741346, "relative_strength": -32.110166, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.697943, "energy": 17.38751, "activity_lines": [ 68.933331, 68.621817, 69.60619, 71.279355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 70.199997, "volume": 1534863, "typical_volume": 1126876.1, "trend": 75.086667, "fair_value": 79.877885, "relative_strength": -29.964102, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.663544, "energy": 16.507364, "activity_lines": [ 69.433331, 68.789089, 69.601428, 70.904086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 73.099998, "volume": 726521, "typical_volume": 1122469.55, "trend": 74.163333, "fair_value": 80.032372, "relative_strength": -27.491702, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.977711, "energy": 9.800607, "activity_lines": [ 70.559998, 69.559998, 69.887142, 70.775913 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }