{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4d5c884a-b3cf-4ee7-9528-c19e20c25142", "symbol": "PHM", "name": "PulteGroup Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 71.667, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 24.893, "architecture_energy": 18.161, "architecture_maturity": 18.967, "architecture_confidence": 63.72, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.23, "rotation_up": 40.97, "upward_expansion": 35.17, "deceleration": 40.59, "rotation_down": 27.01, "downward_expansion": 19.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 128.902667, 128.94439, 125.541781, 124.780816 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 132.9, "trend_reference": 125.17767, "distance_from_trend": 0.061691, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 113.150553, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.174541, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.742953, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.01206, "excess_performance": -0.137684, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.061691, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015052, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.174541, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.097918, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.05743, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.078641, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.01206, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.362371, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6742074, "relative_activity": 0.761311, "balance": 2.362371, "dry_up": 1.064038, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064, "annualized_volatility": 0.313529, "from_high_reference": -0.076363, "from_low_reference": 0.227551 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 125.17767, "fair_value_reference": 113.150553, "structural_low": 108.264377, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.04505, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": 0.043419, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.180654, "worst_return": -0.087253, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.128184, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.06825, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.302215, "worst_return": -0.180289, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.119996, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.018108, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.434086, "worst_return": -0.12961, "sufficient": 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"modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.682999, "energy": 44.54938, "activity_lines": [ 129.872923, 125.922727, 123.067413, 123.79082 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 126.08, "volume": 8363239, "typical_volume": 8789552.95, "trend": 124.537439, "fair_value": 112.240435, "relative_strength": -7.439336, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.850062, "energy": 39.429815, "activity_lines": [ 128.839333, 126.566977, 123.42582, 123.905056 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 128.75, "volume": 12970366, "typical_volume": 9116113.4, "trend": 124.872471, "fair_value": 112.534552, "relative_strength": -4.832142, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.089165, "energy": 17.808744, "activity_lines": [ 128.484667, 127.537146, 124.088721, 124.176834 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 126.47, "volume": 9616248, "typical_volume": 9089282.7, "trend": 125.135817, "fair_value": 112.816996, "relative_strength": -7.345553, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 10.635704, "energy": 8.154062, "activity_lines": [ 127.250667, 127.749696, 124.527586, 124.279901 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 132.9, "volume": 6742074, "typical_volume": 8855869.3, "trend": 125.17767, "fair_value": 113.150553, "relative_strength": -5.742953, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.892698, "energy": 18.160644, "activity_lines": [ 128.902667, 128.94439, 125.541781, 124.780816 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }