{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4d608d11-5859-4162-b486-99402be7920d", "symbol": "000158", "name": "Shijiazhuang ChangShan BeiMing Technology Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.232, "architecture_energy": 56.551, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 91.408, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.47, "rotation_up": 26.96, "upward_expansion": 9.76, "deceleration": 60.41, "rotation_down": 53.41, "downward_expansion": 83.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.0, 13.120579, 14.242556, 15.389702 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 13.56, "trend_reference": 16.995549, "distance_from_trend": -0.202144, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.030683, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.154122, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.542244, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.323353, "excess_performance": -0.330753, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.202144, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.13969, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.154122, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.310288, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.335422, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003264, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.323353, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.937696, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 245569660, "relative_activity": 1.863298, "balance": 0.937696, "dry_up": 1.38472, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.098516, "annualized_volatility": 0.411702, "from_high_reference": -0.52203, "from_low_reference": 0.137584 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.995549, "fair_value_reference": 16.030683, "structural_low": 11.92, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.02017, "positive_rate": 0.458333, "directional_follow_through": 0.541667, "median_excess_return": 0.003623, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.539153, "worst_return": -0.179936, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.072689, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.010442, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 2.103509, "worst_return": -0.257812, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.15233, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.121812, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.303386, "worst_return": -0.365025, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"volume": 170340632, "typical_volume": 127374428.5, "trend": 17.223216, "fair_value": 15.987926, "relative_strength": -32.332416, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.256277, "energy": 63.97286, "activity_lines": [ 12.734, 13.133163, 14.429539, 15.626038 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.56, "volume": 245569660, "typical_volume": 131792985.9, "trend": 16.995549, "fair_value": 16.030683, "relative_strength": -33.542244, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.232151, "energy": 56.551167, "activity_lines": [ 13.0, 13.120579, 14.242556, 15.389702 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }