{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4d614863-3aaa-47cf-952c-b935fcae163f", "symbol": "USSC", "name": "State Street SPDR MSCI USA Small Cap Value Weighted UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.242, "architecture_energy": 69.719, "architecture_maturity": 41.635, "architecture_confidence": 82.739, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 1.21, "rotation_up": 72.81, "upward_expansion": 89.64, "deceleration": 51.48, "rotation_down": 20.12, "downward_expansion": 11.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 94.104668, 93.255819, 91.263024, 89.352408 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 95.639999, "trend_reference": 87.180667, "distance_from_trend": 0.097032, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 69.859872, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.369026, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 7.189872, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.114555, "excess_performance": 0.06332, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.097032, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059685, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.369026, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049395, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.071899, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015561, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.114555, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.831217, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 43160, "relative_activity": 0.48061, "balance": 1.831217, "dry_up": 0.724996, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023293, "annualized_volatility": 0.12641, "from_high_reference": -0.014325, "from_low_reference": 0.391127 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 87.180667, "fair_value_reference": 69.859872, "structural_low": 77.900002, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.006841, "positive_rate": 0.655172, "directional_follow_through": 0.655172, "median_excess_return": -0.010717, "regime_survival": 0.724138, "best_return": 0.071333, "worst_return": -0.132282, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.01459, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.007315, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.090362, "worst_return": -0.104219, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.030204, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.021204, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.201414, "worst_return": -0.035814, "sufficient": true }, { 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{ "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 93.330002, "volume": 153614, "typical_volume": 90924.15, "trend": 86.719, "fair_value": 69.616763, "relative_strength": 5.209871, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.741348, "energy": 63.955817, "activity_lines": [ 93.222668, 92.54691, 90.575429, 88.77686 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 95.639999, "volume": 43160, "typical_volume": 89802.55, "trend": 87.180667, "fair_value": 69.859872, "relative_strength": 7.189872, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.241901, "energy": 69.718839, "activity_lines": [ 94.104668, 93.255819, 91.263024, 89.352408 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }