{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4d615c06-0ae2-45f1-aed7-81e0c569d176", "symbol": "300087", "name": "Winall Hi-tech Seed Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.841, "architecture_energy": 67.438, "architecture_maturity": 76.817, "architecture_confidence": 91.635, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.36, "rotation_up": 21.28, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 59.35, "rotation_down": 64.66, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.112, 5.398727, 6.255238, 6.855505 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.32, "trend_reference": 7.692333, "distance_from_trend": -0.308402, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.726577, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.390368, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -40.885206, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.489443, "excess_performance": -0.496843, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.308402, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.177379, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.390368, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.307689, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.408852, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.12896, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.489443, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.430896, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 68708585, "relative_activity": 1.370091, "balance": 0.430896, "dry_up": 1.083934, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.096877, "annualized_volatility": 0.504756, "from_high_reference": -0.563577, "from_low_reference": 0.136752 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.692333, "fair_value_reference": 8.726577, "structural_low": 4.68, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.017598, "positive_rate": 0.40625, "directional_follow_through": 0.59375, "median_excess_return": -0.018896, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.280507, "worst_return": -0.264487, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.015267, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.059039, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.761769, "worst_return": -0.336317, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.04382, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.000597, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.822249, "worst_return": -0.240135, "sufficient": true }, { 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8.546667, "fair_value": 8.869655, "relative_strength": -51.898833, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -96.832124, "energy": 98.618114, "activity_lines": [ 5.706667, 6.378545, 7.118286, 7.664688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.97, "volume": 63495541, "typical_volume": 70975513.85, "trend": 8.333333, "fair_value": 8.836571, "relative_strength": -44.658937, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.412908, "energy": 94.638866, "activity_lines": [ 5.328667, 6.026364, 6.862333, 7.433935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.95, "volume": 44689261, "typical_volume": 58234582.3, "trend": 8.118, "fair_value": 8.799778, "relative_strength": -44.390433, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.074306, "energy": 91.406347, "activity_lines": [ 5.078, 5.731636, 6.623238, 7.215656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.12, "volume": 40539114, "typical_volume": 52953869.85, "trend": 7.904333, "fair_value": 8.763824, "relative_strength": -40.865291, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.568893, "energy": 87.939313, "activity_lines": [ 5.008, 5.524909, 6.420381, 7.022237 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.32, "volume": 68708585, "typical_volume": 50148917.7, "trend": 7.692333, "fair_value": 8.726577, "relative_strength": -40.885206, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.840716, "energy": 67.437812, "activity_lines": [ 5.112, 5.398727, 6.255238, 6.855505 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }