{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4d62aac6-461c-4678-bc45-ce3a1988c27e", "symbol": "002796", "name": "Suzhou Shijia Science & Technology Inc.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.764, "architecture_energy": 82.527, "architecture_maturity": 24.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.819, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.23, "rotation_up": 10.51, "upward_expansion": 20.44, "deceleration": 37.37, "rotation_down": 76.45, "downward_expansion": 96.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.912, 31.244909, 38.059047, 41.784623 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 30.35, "trend_reference": 44.678333, "distance_from_trend": -0.3207, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.385897, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.650722, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.890555, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.319507, "excess_performance": -0.326906, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.3207, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.107078, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.650722, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.983711, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.108906, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.96548, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.319507, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.464688, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 70241438, "relative_activity": 1.131881, "balance": 0.464688, "dry_up": 0.896619, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.222735, "annualized_volatility": 0.798178, "from_high_reference": -0.552887, "from_low_reference": 1.410643 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.678333, "fair_value_reference": 18.385897, "structural_low": 23.030001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.014951, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.000743, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.450617, "worst_return": -0.122713, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.164444, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.132296, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.433642, "worst_return": -0.138723, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.07984, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.071611, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.71743, "worst_return": -0.118199, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.063514, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.354074, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.144417, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.864481, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.082474, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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[ 33.455999, 37.358181, 43.38319, 45.154408 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.940001, "volume": 55911939, "typical_volume": 65276584.75, "trend": 44.695, "fair_value": 18.18, "relative_strength": -16.668248, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.175164, "energy": 86.994521, "activity_lines": [ 30.543333, 34.879999, 41.425761, 44.017268 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.33, "volume": 46727698, "typical_volume": 61945213.3, "trend": 44.591, "fair_value": 18.261218, "relative_strength": -24.129315, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.474691, "energy": 90.587934, "activity_lines": [ 27.748667, 32.283454, 39.376238, 42.703397 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.35, "volume": 70241438, "typical_volume": 62057259.4, "trend": 44.678333, "fair_value": 18.385897, "relative_strength": -10.890555, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.76426, "energy": 82.527193, "activity_lines": [ 27.912, 31.244909, 38.059047, 41.784623 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }