{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4d6c250f-c0a6-4aa9-bbe0-9a5c46356d6d", "symbol": "300313", "name": "Xinjiang Tianshan Animal Husbandry Bio-engineering Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 87.634, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -17.061, "architecture_energy": 36.058, "architecture_maturity": 5.496, "architecture_confidence": 69.019, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.15, "rotation_up": 19.15, "upward_expansion": 23.79, "deceleration": 49.2, "rotation_down": 58.04, "downward_expansion": 48.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.914667, 8.092364, 8.410286, 8.342194 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 8.15, "trend_reference": 8.305333, "distance_from_trend": -0.018703, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.588782, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.073954, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.748672, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.010922, "excess_performance": -0.018322, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.018703, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022979, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.073954, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.157369, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.077487, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023446, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.010922, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.935395, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22874940, "relative_activity": 1.275166, "balance": 0.935395, "dry_up": 1.362412, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.10722, "annualized_volatility": 0.473094, "from_high_reference": -0.309322, "from_low_reference": 0.182874 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.305333, "fair_value_reference": 7.588782, "structural_low": 6.89, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.033159, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.026673, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.078809, "worst_return": -0.14361, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.18023, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.080242, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.075306, "worst_return": -0.264822, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.05397, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.024048, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.33045, "worst_return": -0.387885, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.326316, 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"end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.209677, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.136681, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.125452, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.146586, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.157396, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.079893, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", 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"stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.916463, "energy": 18.573416, "activity_lines": [ 8.274667, 8.499273, 8.573619, 8.438839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.48, "volume": 22281979, "typical_volume": 17551864.15, "trend": 8.321333, "fair_value": 7.549231, "relative_strength": -13.899366, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.594457, "energy": 29.006606, "activity_lines": [ 7.985333, 8.265636, 8.487571, 8.382366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.85, "volume": 24610576, "typical_volume": 17443741.95, "trend": 8.301333, "fair_value": 7.568269, "relative_strength": -7.250494, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.882434, "energy": 35.466067, "activity_lines": [ 7.9, 8.132545, 8.435095, 8.351957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.15, "volume": 22874940, "typical_volume": 17938793.75, "trend": 8.305333, "fair_value": 7.588782, "relative_strength": -7.748672, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.061187, "energy": 36.058179, "activity_lines": [ 7.914667, 8.092364, 8.410286, 8.342194 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }