{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4d6db7e6-a86b-4995-a33d-f46a99928dea", "symbol": "601890", "name": "Asian Star Anchor Chain Co., Ltd. Jiangsu", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.552, "architecture_energy": 52.996, "architecture_maturity": 69.475, "architecture_confidence": 87.739, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.72, "rotation_up": 28.19, "upward_expansion": 9.59, "deceleration": 60.21, "rotation_down": 44.36, "downward_expansion": 78.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.388667, 8.403263, 8.876065, 9.405419 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 8.48, "trend_reference": 10.04892, "distance_from_trend": -0.156128, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.899842, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.047174, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.629606, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.182257, "excess_performance": -0.139053, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.156128, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059115, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.047174, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.251869, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.156296, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.126534, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.182257, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.359502, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 74017287, "relative_activity": 0.671676, "balance": 0.359502, "dry_up": 0.765555, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068172, "annualized_volatility": 0.406181, "from_high_reference": -0.407821, "from_low_reference": 0.084399 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.04892, "fair_value_reference": 8.899842, "structural_low": 7.82, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.011215, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.003735, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.2144, "worst_return": -0.077713, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.158996, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.014141, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.428307, "worst_return": -0.145965, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.032753, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.035582, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.582719, "worst_return": -0.084187, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 154223339.6, "trend": 10.223587, "fair_value": 8.942294, "relative_strength": -18.616841, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.721397, "energy": 69.824662, "activity_lines": [ 8.273333, 8.513605, 9.209317, 9.738285 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.26, "volume": 94290284, "typical_volume": 132726814.6, "trend": 10.166587, "fair_value": 8.925702, "relative_strength": -15.910354, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.587762, "energy": 62.620169, "activity_lines": [ 8.239333, 8.414675, 9.06209, 9.611602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.6, "volume": 84146737, "typical_volume": 122632657.65, "trend": 10.109254, "fair_value": 8.911289, "relative_strength": -12.488253, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.594266, "energy": 59.314225, "activity_lines": [ 8.348, 8.410301, 8.968101, 9.510532 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.48, "volume": 74017287, "typical_volume": 110197947.1, "trend": 10.04892, "fair_value": 8.899842, "relative_strength": -15.629606, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.551754, "energy": 52.996226, "activity_lines": [ 8.388667, 8.403263, 8.876065, 9.405419 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }