{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4d752b06-669e-4bf2-aeb0-8ff4cef995b5", "symbol": "CRMT", "name": "Americas Car-Mart Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.741, "architecture_energy": 57.478, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 62.262, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.96, "rotation_up": 27.71, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 66.95, "rotation_down": 48.12, "downward_expansion": 72.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.254, 3.162182, 5.643571, 8.137591 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.23, "trend_reference": 12.344333, "distance_from_trend": -0.738341, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 46.075321, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.929897, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -85.905325, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.867894, "excess_performance": -1.055347, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.738341, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.35214, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.929897, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.169861, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.859053, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.197717, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.867894, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.634068, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1047002, "relative_activity": 0.189476, "balance": 4.634068, "dry_up": 0.556676, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.628095, "annualized_volatility": 2.074952, "from_high_reference": -0.93261, "from_low_reference": 1.34058 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.344333, "fair_value_reference": 46.075321, "structural_low": 1.38, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": -0.019428, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.023708, "regime_survival": 0.861111, "best_return": 0.327482, "worst_return": -0.65718, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.108988, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.073336, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.250647, "worst_return": -0.800333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.202963, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.112415, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.298099, "worst_return": -0.633201, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"2026-07-17", "close": 3.77, "volume": 8263886, "typical_volume": 5499493.4, "trend": 14.639667, "fair_value": 48.212436, "relative_strength": -84.998255, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.605732, "energy": 66.941792, "activity_lines": [ 3.157333, 4.249091, 7.285, 10.217226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.04, "volume": 2051086, "typical_volume": 5577298.2, "trend": 13.879, "fair_value": 47.491987, "relative_strength": -87.104555, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.749341, "energy": 66.03446, "activity_lines": [ 3.193333, 3.716545, 6.662143, 9.46886 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.19, "volume": 942330, "typical_volume": 5540826.2, "trend": 13.175667, "fair_value": 46.773077, "relative_strength": -85.97137, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.519203, "energy": 63.244212, "activity_lines": [ 3.236667, 3.356727, 6.126333, 8.779247 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.23, "volume": 1047002, "typical_volume": 5525789.65, "trend": 12.344333, "fair_value": 46.075321, "relative_strength": -85.905325, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.741208, "energy": 57.477712, "activity_lines": [ 3.254, 3.162182, 5.643571, 8.137591 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }