{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4d75bce4-1fd8-4371-bd97-d97a5bc1fd9d", "symbol": "APO", "name": "Apollo Global Management LLC Class A", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 73.706, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 32.282, "architecture_energy": 14.449, "architecture_maturity": 18.152, "architecture_confidence": 47.247, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.94, "rotation_up": 36.37, "upward_expansion": 54.87, "deceleration": 59.37, "rotation_down": 25.62, "downward_expansion": 23.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 124.578, 124.013471, 125.272565, 123.324118 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 127.44, "trend_reference": 122.861198, "distance_from_trend": 0.037268, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 122.244373, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.042502, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.99588, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.033766, "excess_performance": -0.15939, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.037268, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035182, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.042502, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.08404, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.109959, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011651, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.033766, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.861618, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20083027, "relative_activity": 0.992593, "balance": 2.861618, "dry_up": 1.018295, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069021, "annualized_volatility": 0.43502, "from_high_reference": -0.161471, "from_low_reference": 0.285522 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 122.861198, "fair_value_reference": 122.244373, "structural_low": 99.134813, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.057445, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.021989, "regime_survival": 0.384615, "best_return": 0.253056, "worst_return": -0.16073, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.137774, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.130404, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.553725, "worst_return": -0.03349, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.287862, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.287526, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.572044, "worst_return": 0.047263, "sufficient": false }, 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121.646125, "relative_strength": -11.40246, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.733484, "energy": 22.990429, "activity_lines": [ 120.764, 123.594319, 124.459464, 122.968866 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 125.59, "volume": 19569783, "typical_volume": 21031475.75, "trend": 123.432337, "fair_value": 121.924869, "relative_strength": -9.740727, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.116732, "energy": 12.824788, "activity_lines": [ 122.606, 123.609168, 124.829338, 123.06556 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 127.44, "volume": 20083027, "typical_volume": 20232894.15, "trend": 122.861198, "fair_value": 122.244373, "relative_strength": -10.99588, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.282027, "energy": 14.449451, "activity_lines": [ 124.578, 124.013471, 125.272565, 123.324118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }