{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "4d77f752-daac-42ae-9f45-c0f9c663c696",
    "symbol": "MDIV",
    "name": "Middlefield Global Dividend Growers ETF",
    "exchange": "TOR",
    "country": "CA",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GSPTSE",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 49.536,
    "architecture_energy": 31.144,
    "architecture_maturity": 66.421,
    "architecture_confidence": 82.855,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 28.86,
        "rotation_up": 29.28,
        "upward_expansion": 61.65,
        "deceleration": 88.33,
        "rotation_down": 28.34,
        "downward_expansion": 22.99
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        22.092956,
        22.262364,
        21.954569,
        21.342097
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 22.49,
    "trend_reference": 20.58079,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.092767,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 17.108529,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.314549,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 2.013388,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.181207,
    "excess_performance": 0.060785,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.092767,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.068022,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.314549,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.006394,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.020134,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.020668,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.181207,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.589421,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 7200,
      "relative_activity": 1.111969,
      "balance": 0.589421,
      "dry_up": 1.30888,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.02795,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.191603,
      "from_high_reference": -0.02724,
      "from_low_reference": 0.282578
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 20.58079,
      "fair_value_reference": 17.108529,
      "structural_low": 17.9084,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 11,
        "median_return": -0.029734,
        "positive_rate": 0.454545,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.454545,
        "median_excess_return": -0.008177,
        "regime_survival": 0.454545,
        "best_return": 0.077594,
        "worst_return": -0.065406,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.032716,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.019509,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.109108,
        "worst_return": -0.177118,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.102395,
        "positive_rate": 0.8,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.8,
        "median_excess_return": -0.002947,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.181886,
        "worst_return": -0.02259,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.056831,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.00765,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.326919,
        "worst_return": -0.116666,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2023-10-13",
        "end": "2023-11-10",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.022765,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2023-11-17",
        "end": "2023-12-01",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.003663,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2023-12-08",
        "end": "2024-08-09",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.23749,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-08-16",
        "end": "2024-08-30",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.004724,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-09-06",
        "end": "2025-01-17",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.166505,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-24",
        "end": "2025-03-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.105751,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-14",
        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.106596,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-06-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.067589,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-06-27",
        "end": "2025-07-18",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.008948,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-07-25",
        "end": "2025-08-29",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.006045,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-09-05",
        "end": "2025-11-21",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.008477,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2026-01-16",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.031151,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-01-23",
        "end": "2026-07-24",
        "tenure": "Extended",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-07-31",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.029291,
        "active": true
      }
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "typical_volume": 10770.0,
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "trend": 19.377464,
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        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 87.140374,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 22.864704,
        "volume": 3000,
        "typical_volume": 7895.0,
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        "fair_value": 16.803827,
        "relative_strength": 6.796725,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 7515.0,
        "trend": 20.098666,
        "fair_value": 16.868404,
        "relative_strength": 5.85244,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 65.775602,
        "energy": 86.725705,
        "activity_lines": [
          22.791341,
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          21.566914,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 21.588348,
        "volume": 10100,
        "typical_volume": 7850.0,
        "trend": 20.218407,
        "fair_value": 16.926001,
        "relative_strength": 0.846761,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.112163,
        "energy": 63.925182,
        "activity_lines": [
          22.438946,
          22.320942,
          21.646878,
          21.006628
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 21.887495,
        "volume": 2100,
        "typical_volume": 7020.0,
        "trend": 20.34452,
        "fair_value": 16.984675,
        "relative_strength": 2.01273,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 50.491029,
        "energy": 48.463545,
        "activity_lines": [
          22.179314,
          22.271907,
          21.746209,
          21.114311
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 21.85,
        "volume": 14500,
        "typical_volume": 6590.0,
        "trend": 20.464793,
        "fair_value": 17.044371,
        "relative_strength": 2.308402,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 42.337442,
        "energy": 31.013797,
        "activity_lines": [
          21.989336,
          22.211094,
          21.827882,
          21.211438
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 22.49,
        "volume": 7200,
        "typical_volume": 6475.0,
        "trend": 20.58079,
        "fair_value": 17.108529,
        "relative_strength": 2.013388,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 49.535796,
        "energy": 31.143907,
        "activity_lines": [
          22.092956,
          22.262364,
          21.954569,
          21.342097
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}