{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4d78020b-8dc4-4638-b8db-456c088ae521", "symbol": "MDEV", "name": "FIRST TRUST INDXX MEDICAL DEVICES ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 57.885, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 59.052, "architecture_energy": 67.622, "architecture_maturity": 11.536, "architecture_confidence": 61.154, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.97, "rotation_up": 74.98, "upward_expansion": 63.29, "deceleration": 21.64, "rotation_down": 16.96, "downward_expansion": 21.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.167627, 19.830019, 19.393013, 19.357095 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 20.9119, "trend_reference": 19.558361, "distance_from_trend": 0.069205, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.189944, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.035758, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.29597, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.006251, "excess_performance": -0.119374, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.069205, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025628, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.035758, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.131875, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.07296, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.125309, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.006251, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.775818, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 828, "relative_activity": 0.077574, "balance": 1.775818, "dry_up": 1.893462, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030228, "annualized_volatility": 0.212431, "from_high_reference": -0.041618, "from_low_reference": 0.172647 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.558361, "fair_value_reference": 20.189944, "structural_low": 17.833069, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.025711, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.004688, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.069914, "worst_return": -0.045471, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.021702, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.033326, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.08395, "worst_return": -0.103108, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.005719, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.101612, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.115995, "worst_return": -0.04075, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.003648, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.024492, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011562, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.087567, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.022948, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.026637, 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"typical_volume": 7148.05, "trend": 19.672321, "fair_value": 20.192992, "relative_strength": -10.233233, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 4.341373, "energy": 26.134596, "activity_lines": [ 19.613021, 19.30211, 19.069413, 19.255632 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.2928, "volume": 38190, "typical_volume": 8927.1, "trend": 19.611648, "fair_value": 20.1816, "relative_strength": -11.066892, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": 1.395178, "energy": 26.138352, "activity_lines": [ 19.562153, 19.349097, 19.097101, 19.231147 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.2386, "volume": 35485, "typical_volume": 10650.3, "trend": 19.586664, "fair_value": 20.182251, "relative_strength": -7.419294, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.606858, "energy": 53.230712, "activity_lines": [ 19.779967, 19.541507, 19.216351, 19.271595 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.9119, "volume": 828, "typical_volume": 10673.7, "trend": 19.558361, "fair_value": 20.189944, "relative_strength": -7.29597, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 59.05215, "energy": 67.621643, "activity_lines": [ 20.167627, 19.830019, 19.393013, 19.357095 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }