{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4d790635-a4aa-4dbb-8237-a2b6f12d4f98", "symbol": "GMAT3", "name": "Grupo Mateus S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.515, "architecture_energy": 46.697, "architecture_maturity": 75.431, "architecture_confidence": 91.766, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.55, "rotation_up": 26.15, "upward_expansion": 6.74, "deceleration": 56.79, "rotation_down": 47.53, "downward_expansion": 77.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.858, 3.869091, 4.036333, 4.230387 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.73, "trend_reference": 4.486333, "distance_from_trend": -0.168586, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.290416, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.407034, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.786665, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.249497, "excess_performance": -0.192449, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.168586, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073224, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.407034, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.106487, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.307867, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059174, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.249497, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.48564, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17018300, "relative_activity": 0.559076, "balance": 0.48564, "dry_up": 0.646238, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080841, "annualized_volatility": 0.462341, "from_high_reference": -0.504386, "from_low_reference": 0.044818 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.486333, "fair_value_reference": 6.290416, "structural_low": 3.57, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.012969, "positive_rate": 0.541667, "directional_follow_through": 0.458333, "median_excess_return": -0.023327, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.350459, "worst_return": -0.22496, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.026966, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.00941, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.572104, "worst_return": -0.291258, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.173913, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.061047, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.414894, "worst_return": -0.272146, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.035986, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.031519, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.082976, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037483, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.076704, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.024658, "active": 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"activity_lines": [ 3.878, 3.946727, 4.160476, 4.361699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.79, "volume": 23828300, "typical_volume": 36981930.0, "trend": 4.525667, "fair_value": 6.335064, "relative_strength": -32.97015, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.82227, "energy": 51.736585, "activity_lines": [ 3.85, 3.901091, 4.107, 4.31271 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.03, "volume": 17515200, "typical_volume": 35358585.0, "trend": 4.510333, "fair_value": 6.3134, "relative_strength": -28.969009, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.773824, "energy": 38.519167, "activity_lines": [ 3.909333, 3.909091, 4.083333, 4.280731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.73, "volume": 17018300, "typical_volume": 30440065.0, "trend": 4.486333, "fair_value": 6.290416, "relative_strength": -30.786665, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.515153, "energy": 46.697015, "activity_lines": [ 3.858, 3.869091, 4.036333, 4.230387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }