{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4d7d4271-6b10-48ba-98ac-1237fc178cdb", "symbol": "QQQD", "name": "DIREXION DAILY MAGNIFICENT 7 BEAR 1X ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 52.406, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.329, "architecture_energy": 28.16, "architecture_maturity": 17.693, "architecture_confidence": 74.948, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.75, "rotation_up": 19.82, "upward_expansion": 15.25, "deceleration": 52.14, "rotation_down": 50.72, "downward_expansion": 65.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.771667, 12.908472, 12.850806, 13.065414 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 12.32, "trend_reference": 13.263839, "distance_from_trend": -0.071159, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.329211, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.245524, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.672142, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.089167, "excess_performance": -0.214792, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.071159, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000634, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.245524, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025535, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.176721, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052557, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.089167, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.457274, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 385975, "relative_activity": 0.535968, "balance": 1.457274, "dry_up": 0.637704, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054271, "annualized_volatility": 0.280124, "from_high_reference": -0.206186, "from_low_reference": 0.032308 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.263839, "fair_value_reference": 16.329211, "structural_low": 11.934418, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.011114, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.022809, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.036765, "worst_return": -0.014537, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.098205, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.16922, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.098205, "worst_return": -0.098205, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.089167, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.214792, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.089167, "worst_return": -0.089167, "sufficient": false }, { 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"relative_strength": -14.181211, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.515355, "energy": 22.288392, "activity_lines": [ 12.813517, 12.620463, 13.070488, 13.19764 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 13.79, "volume": 804523, "typical_volume": 882810.9, "trend": 13.269597, "fair_value": 16.502188, "relative_strength": -6.107875, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.096518, "energy": 20.316209, "activity_lines": [ 13.19488, 12.840016, 13.1074, 13.233148 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 13.07, "volume": 542172, "typical_volume": 853306.45, "trend": 13.280318, "fair_value": 16.474056, "relative_strength": -12.302499, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.022829, "energy": 24.734917, "activity_lines": [ 13.234399, 12.911751, 13.074484, 13.220271 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 12.575, "volume": 460948, "typical_volume": 835224.2, "trend": 13.265362, "fair_value": 16.442356, "relative_strength": -16.120375, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.544948, "energy": 24.120953, "activity_lines": [ 13.041824, 12.887383, 12.998823, 13.174766 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.72, "volume": 609440, "typical_volume": 829959.4, "trend": 13.260975, "fair_value": 16.412337, "relative_strength": -13.238764, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.472358, "energy": 19.64628, "activity_lines": [ 12.91185, 12.891283, 12.942164, 13.139582 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.48, "volume": 409702, "typical_volume": 796909.7, "trend": 13.28679, "fair_value": 16.388878, "relative_strength": -7.034861, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.400716, "energy": 7.39841, "activity_lines": [ 13.062333, 13.023868, 12.963618, 13.153712 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.88, "volume": 431840, "typical_volume": 762669.65, "trend": 13.281829, "fair_value": 16.36103, "relative_strength": -11.50314, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.141556, "energy": 18.733898, "activity_lines": [ 12.98, 13.022695, 12.930517, 13.127468 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.32, "volume": 385975, "typical_volume": 720145.05, "trend": 13.263839, "fair_value": 16.329211, "relative_strength": -17.672142, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.329152, "energy": 28.159661, "activity_lines": [ 12.771667, 12.908472, 12.850806, 13.065414 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }