{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "4d7df85e-8453-4afc-a97e-07db805b2973",
    "symbol": "ADKO",
    "name": "Addiko Bank AG",
    "exchange": "VIE",
    "country": "AT",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^ATX",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": -17.252,
    "architecture_energy": 13.951,
    "architecture_maturity": 6.633,
    "architecture_confidence": 64.089,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 54.53,
        "rotation_up": 23.35,
        "upward_expansion": 22.91,
        "deceleration": 56.14,
        "rotation_down": 45.46,
        "downward_expansion": 31.91
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        26.573333,
        26.796364,
        26.95,
        26.843656
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Stable",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.0
    },
    "latest_close": 26.0,
    "trend_reference": 26.6,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.022556,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 19.67514,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.321465,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -12.987684,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.022556,
    "excess_performance": -0.196803,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.022556,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.06656,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.321465,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.179241,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.129877,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.158005,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.022556,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.178506,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 51990,
      "relative_activity": 5.906478,
      "balance": 0.178506,
      "dry_up": 2.044574,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.045266,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.298316,
      "from_high_reference": -0.103448,
      "from_low_reference": 0.27451
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 26.6,
      "fair_value_reference": 19.67514,
      "structural_low": 24.5,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 14,
        "median_return": 0.013903,
        "positive_rate": 0.571429,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.571429,
        "median_excess_return": -0.004169,
        "regime_survival": 0.642857,
        "best_return": 0.174935,
        "worst_return": -0.044386,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.106599,
        "positive_rate": 0.857143,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.857143,
        "median_excess_return": 0.020266,
        "regime_survival": 0.428571,
        "best_return": 0.216535,
        "worst_return": 0.0,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.111675,
        "positive_rate": 0.8,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.8,
        "median_excess_return": 0.095591,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.262443,
        "worst_return": -0.007057,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.197393,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.116447,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.609629,
        "worst_return": -0.153694,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2023-09-08",
        "end": "2023-09-22",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.034615,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2023-09-29",
        "end": "2023-11-17",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.090551,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2023-11-24",
        "end": "2024-08-23",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.443931,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-08-30",
        "end": "2024-10-18",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.120588,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2024-11-29",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.025,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "end": "2025-01-31",
        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-02-07",
        "end": "2025-02-21",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.008086,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-02-28",
        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.031088,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "return": -0.015228,
        "active": false
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "return": -0.022556,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 66.127837,
        "energy": 71.225629,
        "activity_lines": [
          27.326667,
          26.829091,
          26.296667,
          25.385807
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 27.6,
        "volume": 18686,
        "typical_volume": 8852.75,
        "trend": 24.31,
        "fair_value": 18.391344,
        "relative_strength": 2.81279,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.246178,
        "energy": 71.336121,
        "activity_lines": [
          27.533333,
          27.018182,
          26.494762,
          25.612258
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 27.5,
        "volume": 726,
        "typical_volume": 8803.7,
        "trend": 24.536667,
        "fair_value": 18.490566,
        "relative_strength": 2.730174,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 61.671479,
        "energy": 61.260443,
        "activity_lines": [
          27.526667,
          27.167273,
          26.656667,
          25.818065
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 27.5,
        "volume": 3500,
        "typical_volume": 8876.3,
        "trend": 24.76,
        "fair_value": 18.590983,
        "relative_strength": 0.558705,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 58.69067,
        "energy": 45.026916,
        "activity_lines": [
          27.52,
          27.298182,
          26.793333,
          26.009247
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 26.5,
        "volume": 7308,
        "typical_volume": 8871.15,
        "trend": 24.94,
        "fair_value": 18.687378,
        "relative_strength": -5.682597,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 44.176864,
        "energy": 31.951982,
        "activity_lines": [
          27.18,
          27.212727,
          26.811905,
          26.121505
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 28.0,
        "volume": 1287,
        "typical_volume": 8531.65,
        "trend": 25.166667,
        "fair_value": 18.794285,
        "relative_strength": 0.642133,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 65.576133,
        "energy": 40.020335,
        "activity_lines": [
          27.406667,
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          26.959048,
          26.318925
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 25.0,
        "volume": 10000,
        "typical_volume": 8870.45,
        "trend": 25.3,
        "fair_value": 18.88017,
        "relative_strength": -12.485999,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 9.718753,
        "energy": 10.965694,
        "activity_lines": [
          26.6,
          26.990909,
          26.810952,
          26.308172
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 27.6,
        "volume": 423,
        "typical_volume": 8015.5,
        "trend": 25.513333,
        "fair_value": 18.983915,
        "relative_strength": -7.290167,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 40.707179,
        "energy": 20.510102,
        "activity_lines": [
          26.833333,
          27.061818,
          26.905714,
          26.456559
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 27.1,
        "volume": 310,
        "typical_volume": 7608.65,
        "trend": 25.706667,
        "fair_value": 19.084754,
        "relative_strength": -7.190601,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 34.430968,
        "energy": 16.295812,
        "activity_lines": [
          26.893333,
          27.04,
          26.942857,
          26.558925
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 27.700001,
        "volume": 517,
        "typical_volume": 7178.75,
        "trend": 25.9,
        "fair_value": 19.190037,
        "relative_strength": -7.381134,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 55.345133,
        "energy": 23.540801,
        "activity_lines": [
          27.18,
          27.134546,
          27.034762,
          26.687527
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 26.799999,
        "volume": 696,
        "typical_volume": 7120.1,
        "trend": 26.056667,
        "fair_value": 19.28746,
        "relative_strength": -9.119037,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 47.793918,
        "energy": 28.993549,
        "activity_lines": [
          27.086667,
          27.061818,
          27.033333,
          26.745591
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 26.9,
        "volume": 1987,
        "typical_volume": 6769.85,
        "trend": 26.22,
        "fair_value": 19.385225,
        "relative_strength": -6.748903,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 34.781767,
        "energy": 20.16214,
        "activity_lines": [
          27.106667,
          27.02,
          27.038571,
          26.8
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 27.200001,
        "volume": 9911,
        "typical_volume": 6978.5,
        "trend": 26.386667,
        "fair_value": 19.486108,
        "relative_strength": -6.819596,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 38.605781,
        "energy": 20.034266,
        "activity_lines": [
          27.1,
          27.045455,
          27.07,
          26.863226
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 26.6,
        "volume": 8099,
        "typical_volume": 7005.55,
        "trend": 26.516667,
        "fair_value": 19.58195,
        "relative_strength": -8.629949,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 13.652818,
        "energy": 7.675089,
        "activity_lines": [
          26.92,
          26.967273,
          27.040952,
          26.876989
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 26.0,
        "volume": 51990,
        "typical_volume": 8802.2,
        "trend": 26.6,
        "fair_value": 19.67514,
        "relative_strength": -12.987684,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -17.251552,
        "energy": 13.950933,
        "activity_lines": [
          26.573333,
          26.796364,
          26.95,
          26.843656
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}