{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4d7e44fd-2e29-4141-a073-dad89f069a16", "symbol": "UBTL", "name": "UBS BBG TIPS 10+ UCITS ETF USD dis", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 88.181, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -73.501, "architecture_energy": 82.5, "architecture_maturity": 4.912, "architecture_confidence": 80.804, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.19, "rotation_up": 8.13, "upward_expansion": 18.52, "deceleration": 37.02, "rotation_down": 80.93, "downward_expansion": 94.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 692.683333, 702.652273, 707.414881, 710.236259 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 689.125, "trend_reference": 715.154685, "distance_from_trend": -0.036397, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 784.097519, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.121123, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.460597, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.052796, "excess_performance": -0.104031, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.036397, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01744, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.121123, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005128, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.134606, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036261, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.052796, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.267336, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33097, "relative_activity": 1.1569, "balance": 0.267336, "dry_up": 1.530121, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016172, "annualized_volatility": 0.088348, "from_high_reference": -0.327531, "from_low_reference": 0.007677 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 715.154685, "fair_value_reference": 784.097519, "structural_low": 683.875, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 44, "median_return": -0.002942, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.013389, "regime_survival": 0.886364, "best_return": 0.082811, "worst_return": -0.095037, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.021813, "positive_rate": 0.133333, "directional_follow_through": 0.866667, "median_excess_return": -0.039892, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.075472, "worst_return": -0.149288, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.04283, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.082191, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.027602, "worst_return": -0.155456, "sufficient": true }, { 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"volume": 31674, "typical_volume": 25217.75, "trend": 718.365265, "fair_value": 786.238468, "relative_strength": -11.532575, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.477013, "energy": 47.466343, "activity_lines": [ 706.033333, 712.222727, 712.133929, 714.248906 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 683.875, "volume": 95713, "typical_volume": 29325.3, "trend": 716.830762, "fair_value": 785.145565, "relative_strength": -14.220154, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.925907, "energy": 82.30586, "activity_lines": [ 696.783333, 706.788636, 709.442857, 712.023727 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 689.125, "volume": 33097, "typical_volume": 28608.35, "trend": 715.154685, "fair_value": 784.097519, "relative_strength": -13.460597, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.500952, "energy": 82.499942, "activity_lines": [ 692.683333, 702.652273, 707.414881, 710.236259 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }