{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4d80263c-8de2-41a3-93b0-5b56f8e36999", "symbol": "AGLX", "name": "Agilyx ASA", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 95.731, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -23.194, "architecture_energy": 41.442, "architecture_maturity": 35.69, "architecture_confidence": 73.997, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.68, "rotation_up": 14.14, "upward_expansion": 20.37, "deceleration": 57.03, "rotation_down": 66.9, "downward_expansion": 47.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.516666, 19.332727, 20.15219, 19.390946 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 18.5, "trend_reference": 18.661, "distance_from_trend": -0.008628, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 25.724039, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.280828, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.040937, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.15625, "excess_performance": 0.031256, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.008628, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062151, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.280828, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.13707, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.210409, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099753, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.15625, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.766558, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 66670, "relative_activity": 0.419212, "balance": 0.766558, "dry_up": 0.734754, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083784, "annualized_volatility": 0.612518, "from_high_reference": -0.288462, "from_low_reference": 0.567797 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.661, "fair_value_reference": 25.724039, "structural_low": 11.8, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.00271, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.016721, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.109299, "worst_return": -0.081164, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.045063, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.049925, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.109797, "worst_return": -0.019672, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.060069, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.047943, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.182432, "worst_return": -0.062295, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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-27.389663, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.580324, "energy": 25.208639, "activity_lines": [ 19.286667, 20.426364, 20.312095, 19.448452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.6, "volume": 69368, "typical_volume": 180983.05, "trend": 19.087667, "fair_value": 25.851603, "relative_strength": -21.372719, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.733155, "energy": 32.632046, "activity_lines": [ 18.776667, 19.961818, 20.266762, 19.401613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.299999, "volume": 60649, "typical_volume": 176677.35, "trend": 18.877667, "fair_value": 25.791987, "relative_strength": -18.099465, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.225535, "energy": 35.822159, "activity_lines": [ 18.68, 19.691818, 20.261619, 19.415312 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.5, "volume": 66670, "typical_volume": 159036.6, "trend": 18.661, "fair_value": 25.724039, "relative_strength": -21.040937, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.193529, "energy": 41.441735, "activity_lines": [ 18.516666, 19.332727, 20.15219, 19.390946 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }