{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4d86dd61-1fd1-4ee2-bc6d-53cc831c9e8a", "symbol": "SPLW", "name": "Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility UCITS ETF Accumulation", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 50.923, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 59.109, "architecture_energy": 46.546, "architecture_maturity": 12.185, "architecture_confidence": 64.145, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.74, "rotation_up": 63.3, "upward_expansion": 79.54, "deceleration": 54.98, "rotation_down": 13.68, "downward_expansion": 6.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 55.528333, 55.210818, 54.466667, 54.196462 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 55.349998, "trend_reference": 53.8785, "distance_from_trend": 0.027311, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 49.315112, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.122374, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.754243, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.031398, "excess_performance": -0.019837, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.027311, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020619, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.122374, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032185, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.037542, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016325, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.031398, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.429286, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21180, "relative_activity": 1.57526, "balance": 0.429286, "dry_up": 2.977319, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02569, "annualized_volatility": 0.117933, "from_high_reference": -0.031835, "from_low_reference": 0.103909 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 53.8785, "fair_value_reference": 49.315112, "structural_low": 52.119999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.00904, "positive_rate": 0.652174, "directional_follow_through": 0.652174, "median_excess_return": -0.014654, "regime_survival": 0.652174, "best_return": 0.039216, "worst_return": -0.042614, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.00818, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.007984, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.078458, "worst_return": -0.040259, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.03713, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.003915, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.071636, "worst_return": 0.00086, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"energy": 73.641536, "activity_lines": [ 55.133334, 54.471727, 53.940072, 53.807613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 56.075001, "volume": 13203, "typical_volume": 6472.8, "trend": 53.612, "fair_value": 49.156394, "relative_strength": -1.45033, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.759248, "energy": 75.172826, "activity_lines": [ 55.569001, 54.855, 54.166476, 53.976538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 55.424999, "volume": 118326, "typical_volume": 12388.35, "trend": 53.754167, "fair_value": 49.235368, "relative_strength": -3.572022, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.412792, "energy": 56.512576, "activity_lines": [ 55.579667, 55.054909, 54.323357, 54.093505 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 55.349998, "volume": 21180, "typical_volume": 13445.4, "trend": 53.8785, "fair_value": 49.315112, "relative_strength": -3.754243, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.109257, "energy": 46.54561, "activity_lines": [ 55.528333, 55.210818, 54.466667, 54.196462 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }