{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4d8fdef5-0ea5-4ac5-a720-ddbe59f868d3", "symbol": "SPEUH", "name": "BNP PARIBAS Easy ICAV - BNP Paribas Easy S&P 500 Scored and Screened UCITS ETF UCITS ETF HEURCAP", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.372, "architecture_energy": 63.0, "architecture_maturity": 51.129, "architecture_confidence": 72.013, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.99, "rotation_up": 53.39, "upward_expansion": 80.99, "deceleration": 71.01, "rotation_down": 28.2, "downward_expansion": 9.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.48124, 15.409247, 15.266666, 14.98112 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 15.9617, "trend_reference": 14.66754, "distance_from_trend": 0.088233, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.705206, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.256312, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.664642, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.114333, "excess_performance": 0.061021, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.088233, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032246, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.256312, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038931, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.046646, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055587, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.114333, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.343302, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 47557, "relative_activity": 0.548397, "balance": 3.343302, "dry_up": 0.639461, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017104, "annualized_volatility": 0.12797, "from_high_reference": -0.003272, "from_low_reference": 0.230265 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.66754, "fair_value_reference": 12.705206, "structural_low": 13.0843, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.025195, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.021305, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.025195, "worst_return": -0.025195, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.103463, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.075347, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.103463, "worst_return": 0.103463, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.10217, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027711, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.05819, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008404, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.004625, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.045757, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-02-02", "close": 10.3747, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-02-09", "close": 10.5385, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-02-16", "close": 10.47, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": 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14.261063, "fair_value": 12.509386, "relative_strength": 8.489406, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.895223, "energy": 86.45517, "activity_lines": [ 15.3122, 15.065311, 14.589389, 14.439973 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 15.3576, "volume": 19501, "typical_volume": 106321.25, "trend": 14.310107, "fair_value": 12.532356, "relative_strength": 6.813978, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.921273, "energy": 81.276444, "activity_lines": [ 15.3399, 15.171933, 14.683886, 14.510717 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 15.4214, "volume": 49998, "typical_volume": 105706.45, "trend": 14.37205, "fair_value": 12.555468, "relative_strength": 6.080667, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.375672, "energy": 78.800728, "activity_lines": [ 15.37262, 15.256782, 14.779286, 14.582414 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 15.2647, "volume": 9934, "typical_volume": 104245.7, "trend": 14.414107, "fair_value": 12.57697, "relative_strength": 5.226511, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.127843, "energy": 65.152717, "activity_lines": [ 15.34112, 15.286085, 14.854173, 14.640004 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 15.3828, "volume": 9940, "typical_volume": 104672.9, "trend": 14.45699, "fair_value": 12.599063, "relative_strength": 4.311911, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.950513, "energy": 64.236761, "activity_lines": [ 15.3506, 15.324345, 14.935828, 14.7025 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 15.3893, "volume": 55459, "typical_volume": 105993.1, "trend": 14.502207, "fair_value": 12.620862, "relative_strength": 6.20444, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.969932, "energy": 63.391835, "activity_lines": [ 15.364813, 15.349713, 15.012378, 14.762649 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.2081, "volume": 94656, "typical_volume": 109012.75, "trend": 14.541587, "fair_value": 12.640918, "relative_strength": 4.729315, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.936107, "energy": 55.168099, "activity_lines": [ 15.313127, 15.32958, 15.065907, 14.808191 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.1838, "volume": 44544, "typical_volume": 102393.6, "trend": 14.57428, "fair_value": 12.660478, "relative_strength": 3.959259, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.460594, "energy": 49.069192, "activity_lines": [ 15.263307, 15.303316, 15.1123, 14.849624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.2633, "volume": 35059, "typical_volume": 97763.15, "trend": 14.612527, "fair_value": 12.680347, "relative_strength": 2.689334, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.107288, "energy": 39.705835, "activity_lines": [ 15.255827, 15.292558, 15.160015, 14.894077 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.9617, "volume": 47557, "typical_volume": 86719.95, "trend": 14.66754, "fair_value": 12.705206, "relative_strength": 4.664642, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.372499, "energy": 63.000389, "activity_lines": [ 15.48124, 15.409247, 15.266666, 14.98112 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }