{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4d9b68dd-fd4b-44bf-87ad-12b59e08e622", "symbol": "T14", "name": "Tianjin Pharmaceutical Da Ren Tang Group Corporation Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 93.567, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.833, "architecture_energy": 24.828, "architecture_maturity": 60.665, "architecture_confidence": 76.322, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.64, "rotation_up": 27.56, "upward_expansion": 20.96, "deceleration": 45.1, "rotation_down": 22.88, "downward_expansion": 54.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.771333, 2.745739, 2.774944, 2.882737 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 2.75, "trend_reference": 2.998322, "distance_from_trend": -0.08282, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.039893, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.34811, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.309985, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.183976, "excess_performance": -0.338811, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.08282, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005649, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.34811, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.109144, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.1831, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.154373, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.183976, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.286176, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1149400, "relative_activity": 1.52583, "balance": 0.286176, "dry_up": 1.536284, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045613, "annualized_volatility": 0.254401, "from_high_reference": -0.266667, "from_low_reference": 0.282941 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.998322, "fair_value_reference": 2.039893, "structural_low": 2.546649, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.042328, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.181818, "median_excess_return": 0.029469, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.097142, "worst_return": -0.036697, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.159175, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.116127, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.20202, "worst_return": -0.022936, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.147009, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.111995, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.242423, "worst_return": 0.043558, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.045454, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.022936, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.022222, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025751, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.232034, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.160305, 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87.535773, "activity_lines": [ 2.617626, 2.685458, 2.885716, 2.972594 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 2.77, "volume": 311200, "typical_volume": 705990.0, "trend": 3.015505, "fair_value": 1.996304, "relative_strength": -11.096265, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.088971, "energy": 64.757672, "activity_lines": [ 2.659711, 2.686058, 2.85792, 2.956708 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.83, "volume": 578400, "typical_volume": 700600.0, "trend": 3.017356, "fair_value": 2.005922, "relative_strength": -12.917426, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.531722, "energy": 45.335378, "activity_lines": [ 2.718262, 2.705021, 2.83903, 2.94474 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.79, "volume": 1456000, "typical_volume": 722605.0, "trend": 3.014416, "fair_value": 2.0146, "relative_strength": -14.753632, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.23792, "energy": 33.542375, "activity_lines": [ 2.752539, 2.718374, 2.820282, 2.930072 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.75, "volume": 1014400, "typical_volume": 733760.0, "trend": 3.00611, "fair_value": 2.022657, "relative_strength": -17.078414, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.692189, "energy": 25.983088, "activity_lines": [ 2.766344, 2.724985, 2.801439, 2.913013 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.79, "volume": 1009300, "typical_volume": 723300.0, "trend": 3.003171, "fair_value": 2.031243, "relative_strength": -16.310163, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.382702, "energy": 26.434903, "activity_lines": [ 2.783333, 2.739352, 2.788977, 2.899071 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.75, "volume": 1149400, "typical_volume": 753295.0, "trend": 2.998322, "fair_value": 2.039893, "relative_strength": -18.309985, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.833115, "energy": 24.827878, "activity_lines": [ 2.771333, 2.745739, 2.774944, 2.882737 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }