{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4d9c1bf6-a7bf-49e9-b1a8-f2676fcc25be", "symbol": "140700", "name": "Samsung Investment Trust - Kodex Insurance ETF", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 37.164, "architecture_energy": 22.878, "architecture_maturity": 54.835, "architecture_confidence": 93.207, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.87, "rotation_up": 28.36, "upward_expansion": 55.14, "deceleration": 90.8, "rotation_down": 26.04, "downward_expansion": 18.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 19189.957422, 19426.480682, 18920.651265, 18136.17747 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 19010.0, "trend_reference": 16984.905566, "distance_from_trend": 0.119229, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10686.569267, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.778868, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.689866, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.360306, "excess_performance": 0.130477, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.119229, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.169975, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.778868, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05122, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.056899, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.350076, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.360306, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.604964, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 424561, "relative_activity": 0.678162, "balance": 4.604964, "dry_up": 0.529298, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.097171, "annualized_volatility": 0.395319, "from_high_reference": -0.147534, "from_low_reference": 0.717393 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16984.905566, "fair_value_reference": 10686.569267, "structural_low": 13969.899808, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.029873, "positive_rate": 0.705882, "directional_follow_through": 0.705882, "median_excess_return": 0.008222, "regime_survival": 0.470588, "best_return": 0.278219, "worst_return": -0.065217, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.178999, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.052767, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.50084, "worst_return": -0.045052, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.208398, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.118899, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.516115, "worst_return": 0.003693, "sufficient": true }, { 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041903, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.093347, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.050817, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038592, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.048608, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Established", 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"activity_lines": [ 19514.330078, 19676.377486, 18709.80426, 17843.956466 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18815.0, "volume": 316620, "typical_volume": 643830.4, "trend": 16752.548893, "fair_value": 10607.389173, "relative_strength": -1.040634, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.372933, "energy": 26.125003, "activity_lines": [ 19306.185937, 19532.974538, 18814.923, 17990.535463 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19010.0, "volume": 424561, "typical_volume": 626046.45, "trend": 16984.905566, "fair_value": 10686.569267, "relative_strength": 5.689866, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.164487, "energy": 22.877932, "activity_lines": [ 19189.957422, 19426.480682, 18920.651265, 18136.17747 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }