{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4da0a4c6-ec4e-4215-ab5e-4079931580f2", "symbol": "SURANASOL", "name": "Surana Solar Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 75.442, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 20.432, "architecture_energy": 10.926, "architecture_maturity": 17.477, "architecture_confidence": 63.363, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 64.7, "rotation_up": 25.75, "upward_expansion": 47.15, "deceleration": 77.79, "rotation_down": 22.42, "downward_expansion": 22.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.253333, 26.421091, 26.54581, 25.882774 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 26.57, "trend_reference": 25.156667, "distance_from_trend": 0.056181, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 33.814872, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.214251, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.480185, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.087152, "excess_performance": 0.130861, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.056181, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023383, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.214251, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044501, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.024802, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001573, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.087152, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.82855, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 374353, "relative_activity": 0.744912, "balance": 0.82855, "dry_up": 1.136482, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074839, "annualized_volatility": 0.317637, "from_high_reference": -0.320113, "from_low_reference": 0.45112 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.156667, "fair_value_reference": 33.814872, "structural_low": 18.309999, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.021598, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.029882, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.425849, "worst_return": -0.115023, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.066986, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.072523, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.461208, "worst_return": -0.17247, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.058039, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.046698, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.503896, "worst_return": -0.208907, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.043609, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.087212, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.088889, "worst_return": -0.176107, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.097092, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01882, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.188456, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.125155, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.105547, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.164154, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.034203, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.136572, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.074291, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.050959, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.106212, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.034014, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.061589, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016839, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 24.5, "volume": 326787, "typical_volume": 728303.1, "trend": 20.758333, "fair_value": 17.966346, "relative_strength": 4.911828, "stage": 2, "regime": 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26.681454, 26.344571, 25.672645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.26, "volume": 337767, "typical_volume": 441557.15, "trend": 25.215333, "fair_value": 33.805513, "relative_strength": -1.06877, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.660349, "energy": 16.465147, "activity_lines": [ 26.269333, 26.582363, 26.429095, 25.738237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.040001, "volume": 1342578, "typical_volume": 495827.05, "trend": 25.154333, "fair_value": 33.803526, "relative_strength": -3.989171, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.49622, "energy": 13.316753, "activity_lines": [ 26.136667, 26.446909, 26.473619, 25.791441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.57, "volume": 374353, "typical_volume": 502546.75, "trend": 25.156667, "fair_value": 33.814872, "relative_strength": -2.480185, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.431803, "energy": 10.926088, "activity_lines": [ 26.253333, 26.421091, 26.54581, 25.882774 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }