{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4da22927-769f-4217-9f57-215a90e3a4ac", "symbol": "VHC", "name": "VirnetX Holding Corp Common Stock", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -20.931, "architecture_energy": 11.856, "architecture_maturity": 71.66, "architecture_confidence": 71.499, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.61, "rotation_up": 28.39, "upward_expansion": 14.95, "deceleration": 43.1, "rotation_down": 25.44, "downward_expansion": 60.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.257333, 12.811091, 13.272871, 13.875275 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 15.08, "trend_reference": 15.1951, "distance_from_trend": -0.007575, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.454, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.44251, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -21.859524, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.173246, "excess_performance": -0.360699, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.007575, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.137456, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.44251, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.140036, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.218595, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.110064, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.173246, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.127121, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 119284, "relative_activity": 1.079827, "balance": 1.127121, "dry_up": 0.666315, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.18199, "annualized_volatility": 0.743475, "from_high_reference": -0.48, "from_low_reference": 0.535642 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.1951, "fair_value_reference": 10.454, "structural_low": 9.82, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.0399, "positive_rate": 0.448276, "directional_follow_through": 0.551724, "median_excess_return": -0.047919, "regime_survival": 0.793103, "best_return": 0.603811, "worst_return": -0.301299, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.080457, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.083132, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.681128, "worst_return": -0.341902, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.117093, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.276041, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.731742, "worst_return": -0.496094, "sufficient": true }, { 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false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.057112, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.143991, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.031603, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.644, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.191915, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": 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52.900274, "activity_lines": [ 12.816667, 13.52, 13.980943, 14.903458 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 10.28, "volume": 212796, "typical_volume": 109763.8, "trend": 15.900767, "fair_value": 10.352372, "relative_strength": -48.556903, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.813819, "energy": 64.480272, "activity_lines": [ 11.872, 12.898545, 13.570214, 14.522699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.84, "volume": 42772, "typical_volume": 108015.2, "trend": 15.6871, "fair_value": 10.369295, "relative_strength": -37.332254, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.274665, "energy": 55.66601, "activity_lines": [ 11.755333, 12.610364, 13.343724, 14.260714 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.5, "volume": 71129, "typical_volume": 107737.5, "trend": 15.503767, "fair_value": 10.387244, "relative_strength": -32.07118, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.959723, "energy": 47.239506, "activity_lines": [ 11.912667, 12.466182, 13.201329, 14.055095 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.0, "volume": 61235, "typical_volume": 107163.2, "trend": 15.363433, "fair_value": 10.412756, "relative_strength": -29.522545, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.241549, "energy": 33.950406, "activity_lines": [ 12.238667, 12.444545, 13.130124, 13.893561 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.08, "volume": 119284, "typical_volume": 110465.85, "trend": 15.1951, "fair_value": 10.454, "relative_strength": -21.859524, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.931434, "energy": 11.855798, "activity_lines": [ 13.257333, 12.811091, 13.272871, 13.875275 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }