{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4dab9f7c-d128-4b3d-b40c-3d5783778811", "symbol": "NEX", "name": "Nexans S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 51.911, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -19.296, "architecture_energy": 32.072, "architecture_maturity": 4.218, "architecture_confidence": 55.564, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.63, "rotation_up": 14.95, "upward_expansion": 19.2, "deceleration": 56.6, "rotation_down": 60.23, "downward_expansion": 46.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 135.173337, 138.018184, 143.073272, 139.950231 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 139.600006, "trend_reference": 135.834778, "distance_from_trend": 0.027719, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 106.426173, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.311707, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.411353, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.021957, "excess_performance": -0.031355, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.027719, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051065, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.311707, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.28169, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.004114, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.302093, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.021957, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.803166, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1384603, "relative_activity": 2.243412, "balance": 0.803166, "dry_up": 1.647064, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071898, "annualized_volatility": 0.399961, "from_high_reference": -0.158851, "from_low_reference": 0.295845 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 135.834778, "fair_value_reference": 106.426173, "structural_low": 107.728931, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.025657, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.024456, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.086449, "worst_return": -0.095581, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.061996, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.145347, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.022196, "worst_return": -0.146188, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.039267, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.137245, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.020144, "worst_return": -0.058391, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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132.199997, "volume": 640976, "typical_volume": 560335.65, "trend": 135.089377, "fair_value": 105.618991, "relative_strength": -2.065095, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -5.332116, "energy": 25.257794, "activity_lines": [ 135.286667, 141.265455, 143.858224, 139.865215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 132.100006, "volume": 1165173, "typical_volume": 584373.5, "trend": 135.292886, "fair_value": 105.987433, "relative_strength": -3.618368, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.29136, "energy": 35.963175, "activity_lines": [ 133.680002, 138.720001, 143.147458, 139.672352 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 139.600006, "volume": 1384603, "typical_volume": 617186.2, "trend": 135.834778, "fair_value": 106.426173, "relative_strength": -0.411353, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.295916, "energy": 32.071734, "activity_lines": [ 135.173337, 138.018184, 143.073272, 139.950231 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }