{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4dac27dd-5471-4913-a2b1-7bb960ae0d65", "symbol": "002919", "name": "Mingchen Health Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.108, "architecture_energy": 67.476, "architecture_maturity": 30.357, "architecture_confidence": 86.87, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.96, "rotation_up": 11.18, "upward_expansion": 14.35, "deceleration": 39.87, "rotation_down": 70.08, "downward_expansion": 87.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.910667, 17.822712, 19.672815, 20.5987 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 17.49, "trend_reference": 21.985115, "distance_from_trend": -0.204462, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.7704, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.068214, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.817424, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.30291, "excess_performance": -0.310309, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.204462, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039244, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.068214, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.3093, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.168174, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.196122, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.30291, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.441051, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21722834, "relative_activity": 0.91041, "balance": 0.441051, "dry_up": 1.094419, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.14679, "annualized_volatility": 0.514368, "from_high_reference": -0.373118, "from_low_reference": 0.223933 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.985115, "fair_value_reference": 18.7704, "structural_low": 15.16, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.000751, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.021596, "regime_survival": 0.791667, "best_return": 0.372175, "worst_return": -0.228872, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.020383, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.07642, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.416885, "worst_return": -0.265358, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.042914, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.06473, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.438542, "worst_return": -0.311917, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.859354, "energy": 62.991829, "activity_lines": [ 18.834666, 19.811201, 20.986579, 21.751238 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.74, "volume": 29060310, "typical_volume": 24714215.3, "trend": 22.419448, "fair_value": 18.960135, "relative_strength": -22.767121, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.35504, "energy": 66.240439, "activity_lines": [ 17.721333, 18.828678, 20.44442, 21.307597 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.110001, "volume": 20834174, "typical_volume": 24109510.45, "trend": 22.168448, "fair_value": 18.857604, "relative_strength": -19.512289, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.552889, "energy": 74.109363, "activity_lines": [ 16.994, 18.113892, 19.976403, 20.900536 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.49, "volume": 21722834, "typical_volume": 23860488.5, "trend": 21.985115, "fair_value": 18.7704, "relative_strength": -16.817424, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.107622, "energy": 67.475607, "activity_lines": [ 16.910667, 17.822712, 19.672815, 20.5987 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }