{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4db094ea-6165-43bd-ae6c-a1ca02928d2b", "symbol": "KAI", "name": "Kadant Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 79.831, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 21.855, "architecture_energy": 17.819, "architecture_maturity": 23.703, "architecture_confidence": 61.231, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.14, "rotation_up": 46.75, "upward_expansion": 36.76, "deceleration": 34.06, "rotation_down": 21.62, "downward_expansion": 16.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 318.103194, 312.645026, 311.291778, 312.059391 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 337.63, "trend_reference": 315.163629, "distance_from_trend": 0.071285, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 306.784387, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.100545, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.135149, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.014881, "excess_performance": -0.140506, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.071285, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026352, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.100545, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035394, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.021351, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009921, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.014881, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.818553, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 778369, "relative_activity": 1.015199, "balance": 0.818553, "dry_up": 0.820959, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08693, "annualized_volatility": 0.460896, "from_high_reference": -0.052774, "from_low_reference": 0.38185 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 315.163629, "fair_value_reference": 306.784387, "structural_low": 278.1761, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.043123, "positive_rate": 0.647059, "directional_follow_through": 0.647059, "median_excess_return": 0.037011, "regime_survival": 0.529412, "best_return": 0.147239, "worst_return": -0.142987, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.109992, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.066171, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.172601, "worst_return": -0.179067, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.047159, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.033704, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.216001, "worst_return": -0.07705, 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"activity_lines": [ 307.814502, 306.834703, 308.472708, 310.569597 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 337.63, "volume": 778369, "typical_volume": 766715.9, "trend": 315.163629, "fair_value": 306.784387, "relative_strength": -2.135149, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.855466, "energy": 17.819437, "activity_lines": [ 318.103194, 312.645026, 311.291778, 312.059391 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }