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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 87.581, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.425, "architecture_energy": 39.477, "architecture_maturity": 4.048, "architecture_confidence": 90.995, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.29, "rotation_up": 17.91, "upward_expansion": 9.72, "deceleration": 38.93, "rotation_down": 56.53, "downward_expansion": 83.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 108.349823, 108.451817, 108.545857, 108.62636 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 108.6552, "trend_reference": 108.72051, "distance_from_trend": -0.000601, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 103.567167, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.049128, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.726013, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.001826, "excess_performance": -0.127451, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.000601, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00052, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.049128, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011292, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.10726, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004959, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.001826, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.118998, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 112796, "relative_activity": 1.586638, "balance": 1.118998, "dry_up": 1.146619, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.005688, "annualized_volatility": 0.025437, "from_high_reference": -0.009206, "from_low_reference": 0.024032 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 108.72051, "fair_value_reference": 103.567167, 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12.540271, "activity_lines": [ 108.850932, 108.70181, 108.757022, 108.776965 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 108.512184, "volume": 60801, "typical_volume": 86646.35, "trend": 108.75348, "fair_value": 103.18287, "relative_strength": -8.867698, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -4.461835, "energy": 8.511121, "activity_lines": [ 108.771091, 108.667912, 108.72649, 108.762146 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 108.292846, "volume": 68688, "typical_volume": 87656.2, "trend": 108.756617, "fair_value": 103.258834, "relative_strength": -9.981516, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.852677, "energy": 17.576823, "activity_lines": [ 108.629048, 108.608939, 108.67799, 108.732428 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 108.412485, "volume": 67255, "typical_volume": 82673.95, "trend": 108.75256, "fair_value": 103.335171, "relative_strength": -8.203349, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.472048, "energy": 26.185654, "activity_lines": [ 108.530738, 108.579768, 108.64598, 108.710226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 108.133328, "volume": 71368, "typical_volume": 79541.95, "trend": 108.733235, "fair_value": 103.411379, "relative_strength": -7.660535, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.335505, "energy": 46.092804, "activity_lines": [ 108.360845, 108.505894, 108.593227, 108.670275 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 108.113388, "volume": 74639, "typical_volume": 70629.15, "trend": 108.716036, "fair_value": 103.486701, "relative_strength": -8.365865, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.244135, "energy": 55.24069, "activity_lines": [ 108.229039, 108.427649, 108.543199, 108.630285 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 108.6552, "volume": 112796, "typical_volume": 71091.2, "trend": 108.72051, "fair_value": 103.567167, "relative_strength": -10.726013, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.425046, "energy": 39.476712, "activity_lines": [ 108.349823, 108.451817, 108.545857, 108.62636 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }