{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4dbd4e84-fafd-4baf-8814-2a05f00163ca", "symbol": "EXO", "name": "Exor N.V.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 52.355, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 31.874, "architecture_energy": 42.391, "architecture_maturity": 12.761, "architecture_confidence": 56.51, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.38, "rotation_up": 63.67, "upward_expansion": 51.99, "deceleration": 17.12, "rotation_down": 16.67, "downward_expansion": 22.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 69.453332, 68.715453, 67.99134, 67.997436 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 70.699997, "trend_reference": 68.341138, "distance_from_trend": 0.034516, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 84.408426, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.162406, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -21.096793, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.051938, "excess_performance": -0.122309, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.034516, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020994, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.162406, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0352, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.210968, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041514, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.051938, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.149286, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 1.149286, "dry_up": 0.26544, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034374, "annualized_volatility": 0.258959, "from_high_reference": -0.201164, "from_low_reference": 0.164615 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 68.341138, "fair_value_reference": 84.408426, "structural_low": 60.706755, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.029661, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.019104, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.061929, "worst_return": -0.134112, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.019152, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.067876, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.162657, "worst_return": -0.156557, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.048946, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.130397, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.143462, "worst_return": -0.159739, "sufficient": 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-0.006629, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.051399, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.003659, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.048703, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.043243, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037507, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", 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"activity_lines": [ 67.833333, 67.280406, 67.263843, 67.836406 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 68.949997, "volume": 300, "typical_volume": 283.15, "trend": 68.727644, "fair_value": 84.641457, "relative_strength": -22.293138, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.27365, "energy": 12.580009, "activity_lines": [ 68.349998, 67.617113, 67.39001, 67.844354 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 68.050003, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 283.15, "trend": 68.600137, "fair_value": 84.542151, "relative_strength": -23.422735, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.832956, "energy": 16.391924, "activity_lines": [ 68.41, 67.782, 67.453847, 67.800635 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 69.449997, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 282.55, "trend": 68.499442, "fair_value": 84.466936, "relative_strength": -21.013767, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.411014, "energy": 27.742157, "activity_lines": [ 68.819999, 68.156363, 67.661195, 67.855465 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 70.699997, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 282.55, "trend": 68.341138, "fair_value": 84.408426, "relative_strength": -21.096793, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.874053, "energy": 42.391465, "activity_lines": [ 69.453332, 68.715453, 67.99134, 67.997436 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }