{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4dc069c1-c5d7-4ce4-95d0-476612896d02", "symbol": "JIN", "name": "Jumbo Interactive Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.419, "architecture_energy": 18.763, "architecture_maturity": 99.669, "architecture_confidence": 72.292, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.79, "rotation_up": 26.35, "upward_expansion": 18.18, "deceleration": 46.68, "rotation_down": 28.34, "downward_expansion": 56.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.207333, 7.073273, 7.212476, 7.493258 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7.44, "trend_reference": 8.07605, "distance_from_trend": -0.078758, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.621975, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.359833, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -23.749446, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.216099, "excess_performance": -0.279804, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.078758, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.129703, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.359833, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010626, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.237494, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008727, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.216099, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.637949, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 756578, "relative_activity": 0.907856, "balance": 0.637949, "dry_up": 1.194254, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.096826, "annualized_volatility": 0.509153, "from_high_reference": -0.426472, "from_low_reference": 0.261017 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.07605, "fair_value_reference": 11.621975, "structural_low": 5.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.010334, "positive_rate": 0.423077, "directional_follow_through": 0.576923, "median_excess_return": -0.027369, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.190977, "worst_return": -0.201276, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.04068, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.037153, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.33764, "worst_return": -0.25987, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.068128, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.089427, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.208337, "worst_return": -0.121966, "sufficient": false }, { 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42.041681, "activity_lines": [ 6.878667, 6.990727, 7.227286, 7.612004 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.24, "volume": 987500, "typical_volume": 871288.2, "trend": 8.193468, "fair_value": 11.662349, "relative_strength": -23.957524, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.564688, "energy": 24.440107, "activity_lines": [ 7.054, 7.014182, 7.208762, 7.541869 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.44, "volume": 756578, "typical_volume": 833368.2, "trend": 8.07605, "fair_value": 11.621975, "relative_strength": -23.749446, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.418791, "energy": 18.762785, "activity_lines": [ 7.207333, 7.073273, 7.212476, 7.493258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }