{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4dc2b0c5-bc64-472a-a193-4c44ea2c149c", "symbol": "6892", "name": "Taiwan Bio Therapeutics Co., Ltd", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.911, "architecture_energy": 59.948, "architecture_maturity": 21.97, "architecture_confidence": 84.56, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.17, "rotation_up": 11.2, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 38.08, "rotation_down": 69.13, "downward_expansion": 87.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.82, 25.571818, 25.985238, 26.348495 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 23.6, "trend_reference": 26.96, "distance_from_trend": -0.124629, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 34.077596, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.307463, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -40.661265, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.195911, "excess_performance": -0.637283, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.124629, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030166, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.307463, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022381, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.406613, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033463, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.195911, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.086727, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 305268, "relative_activity": 0.476865, "balance": 1.086727, "dry_up": 0.521635, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095339, "annualized_volatility": 0.234097, "from_high_reference": -0.319885, "from_low_reference": 0.002123 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.96, "fair_value_reference": 34.077596, "structural_low": 23.549999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.056527, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.078321, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.078287, "worst_return": -0.128755, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.088028, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.30595, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.206795, "worst_return": -0.152695, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.077465, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.42658, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.299852, "worst_return": -0.128743, "sufficient": 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00361, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.176683, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.119761, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.017762, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.042253, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-07-03", 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"fair_value": 34.315399, "relative_strength": -34.187596, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.369182, "energy": 11.381917, "activity_lines": [ 26.72, 26.656364, 26.589048, 26.935376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.9, "volume": 271315, "typical_volume": 672311.3, "trend": 27.363333, "fair_value": 34.253651, "relative_strength": -35.529073, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.233067, "energy": 15.082165, "activity_lines": [ 26.473333, 26.528182, 26.507143, 26.836882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.200001, "volume": 392920, "typical_volume": 657787.55, "trend": 27.263333, "fair_value": 34.197979, "relative_strength": -32.727263, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.426436, "energy": 20.789619, "activity_lines": [ 26.31, 26.438182, 26.463333, 26.761828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.4, "volume": 366206, "typical_volume": 655637.9, "trend": 27.143333, "fair_value": 34.144824, "relative_strength": -37.746883, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.217576, "energy": 44.927844, "activity_lines": [ 25.603334, 26.045455, 26.255, 26.577097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 23.6, "volume": 305268, "typical_volume": 640155.55, "trend": 26.96, "fair_value": 34.077596, "relative_strength": -40.661265, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.910539, "energy": 59.948055, "activity_lines": [ 24.82, 25.571818, 25.985238, 26.348495 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }