{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4dc3b2fe-0c30-4efc-af64-0884b419edf8", "symbol": "ULOVD", "name": "UBS Factor MSCI USA Low Volatility UCITS ETF USD dis", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 60.968, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 64.063, "architecture_energy": 57.04, "architecture_maturity": 37.259, "architecture_confidence": 54.402, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.32, "rotation_up": 69.83, "upward_expansion": 81.99, "deceleration": 67.88, "rotation_down": 12.37, "downward_expansion": 8.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.033, 30.837636, 30.292023, 30.086354 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 30.805, "trend_reference": 29.847868, "distance_from_trend": 0.032067, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.369777, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.085839, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.307926, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.038859, "excess_performance": -0.132033, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.032067, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020396, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.085839, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047193, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.103079, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024635, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.038859, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.485392, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30288, "relative_activity": 7.451472, "balance": 0.485392, "dry_up": 3.88565, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019365, "annualized_volatility": 0.09891, "from_high_reference": -0.042728, "from_low_reference": 0.092345 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.847868, "fair_value_reference": 28.369777, "structural_low": 28.584999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.001745, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.000855, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.069586, "worst_return": -0.073171, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.01923, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.003328, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.100314, "worst_return": -0.108676, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.043541, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.044379, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.121448, "worst_return": -0.079847, "sufficient": true }, { 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"energy": 91.71575, "activity_lines": [ 30.508333, 30.105727, 29.78819, 29.708282 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 31.334999, "volume": 14342, "typical_volume": 1686.45, "trend": 29.622569, "fair_value": 28.249182, "relative_strength": -6.544165, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.28704, "energy": 95.487941, "activity_lines": [ 30.851333, 30.389181, 29.940999, 29.824308 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.41, "volume": 10083, "typical_volume": 2175.15, "trend": 29.711042, "fair_value": 28.290741, "relative_strength": -5.895524, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.021781, "energy": 91.730004, "activity_lines": [ 31.123666, 30.64309, 30.095166, 29.939626 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.965, "volume": 8463, "typical_volume": 2551.95, "trend": 29.784682, "fair_value": 28.329448, "relative_strength": -7.519652, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.491622, "energy": 61.819092, "activity_lines": [ 31.117666, 30.770363, 30.203476, 30.020527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.805, "volume": 30288, "typical_volume": 4064.7, "trend": 29.847868, "fair_value": 28.369777, "relative_strength": -10.307926, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.062653, "energy": 57.03971, "activity_lines": [ 31.033, 30.837636, 30.292023, 30.086354 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }