{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4dc3b470-5f6c-4535-9805-9839a03f4667", "symbol": "BTCT", "name": "BTC Digital Ltd.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -78.232, "architecture_energy": 85.069, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 74.889, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.93, "rotation_up": 8.92, "upward_expansion": 19.48, "deceleration": 37.07, "rotation_down": 80.76, "downward_expansion": 95.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.610367, 0.764982, 0.930767, 1.01963 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.4933, "trend_reference": 1.137923, "distance_from_trend": -0.566491, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.04681, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.838093, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -73.701203, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.60536, "excess_performance": -0.792814, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.566491, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.204064, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.838093, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.209302, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.737012, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.190079, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.60536, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 8.058115, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1019556, "relative_activity": 0.196583, "balance": 8.058115, "dry_up": 0.234555, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.467105, "annualized_volatility": 1.153646, "from_high_reference": -0.841891, "from_low_reference": 0.006529 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.137923, "fair_value_reference": 3.04681, "structural_low": 0.4901, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 49, "median_return": -0.091127, "positive_rate": 0.326531, "directional_follow_through": 0.673469, "median_excess_return": -0.10079, "regime_survival": 0.938776, "best_return": 8.452381, "worst_return": -0.626998, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.26585, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.284609, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 3.946108, "worst_return": -0.767698, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.365961, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.547351, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 1.041916, "worst_return": -0.928149, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.510134, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.755666, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.97351, "worst_return": -0.965402, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2021-10-08", "end": "2023-02-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.96357, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-02-10", "end": "2023-05-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.234094, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-05-19", "end": "2023-10-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.080963, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-11-03", "end": "2023-12-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.377143, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-01-05", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.161388, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.114206, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-04-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.135734, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.375465, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", 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"fair_value": 3.126612, "relative_strength": -56.168739, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.87957, "energy": 44.888986, "activity_lines": [ 0.992267, 1.050509, 1.1196, 1.172976 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.8704, "volume": 877271, "typical_volume": 5046902.0, "trend": 1.24364, "fair_value": 3.105858, "relative_strength": -55.756179, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.766751, "energy": 65.361972, "activity_lines": [ 0.933147, 1.010785, 1.091072, 1.146833 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.6414, "volume": 1272328, "typical_volume": 5079521.3, "trend": 1.211687, "fair_value": 3.085674, "relative_strength": -65.830076, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.477036, "energy": 69.529334, "activity_lines": [ 0.822333, 0.935782, 1.042495, 1.107978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.5238, "volume": 1696809, "typical_volume": 5147525.2, "trend": 1.174813, "fair_value": 3.064545, "relative_strength": -71.490773, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.62135, "energy": 81.969578, "activity_lines": [ 0.714227, 0.847916, 0.986188, 1.063599 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.4933, "volume": 1019556, "typical_volume": 5186380.8, "trend": 1.137923, "fair_value": 3.04681, "relative_strength": -73.701203, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.232068, "energy": 85.069092, "activity_lines": [ 0.610367, 0.764982, 0.930767, 1.01963 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }