{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4dcb9ad4-24fb-4b65-8d09-37058f25f027", "symbol": "ARION-SDB", "name": "Arion banki hf.", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 65.522, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 48.027, "architecture_energy": 24.616, "architecture_maturity": 12.459, "architecture_confidence": 54.097, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.01, "rotation_up": 41.11, "upward_expansion": 68.61, "deceleration": 61.89, "rotation_down": 27.17, "downward_expansion": 11.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.705333, 14.672, 14.626905, 14.497204 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 14.8, "trend_reference": 14.442333, "distance_from_trend": 0.024765, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.503333, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.183684, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.523567, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.003367, "excess_performance": -0.064861, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.024765, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017376, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.183684, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005845, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.075236, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019209, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.003367, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.916595, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 79549, "relative_activity": 0.537365, "balance": 1.916595, "dry_up": 0.815417, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036279, "annualized_volatility": 0.153673, "from_high_reference": -0.062104, "from_low_reference": 0.174603 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.442333, "fair_value_reference": 12.503333, "structural_low": 13.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.035713, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.016383, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.079077, "worst_return": -0.019847, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.076776, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.014027, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.186603, "worst_return": -0.084485, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.07583, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.051247, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.239234, "worst_return": -0.014876, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.067334, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.005747, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.296651, "worst_return": -0.161983, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.065891, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029412, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017857, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007067, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.021505, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.049242, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.067616, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.026667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", 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"typical_volume": 181804.45, "trend": 14.430333, "fair_value": 12.402179, "relative_strength": -8.473495, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.225932, "energy": 20.088289, "activity_lines": [ 14.705333, 14.774909, 14.472714, 14.436602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 14.38, "volume": 122834, "typical_volume": 182160.95, "trend": 14.441333, "fair_value": 12.422308, "relative_strength": -7.592086, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 2.346293, "energy": 7.100171, "activity_lines": [ 14.582667, 14.709818, 14.478381, 14.433355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.42, "volume": 122061, "typical_volume": 181549.0, "trend": 14.440333, "fair_value": 12.440897, "relative_strength": -6.118502, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.220542, "energy": 6.986277, "activity_lines": [ 14.512, 14.648727, 14.488667, 14.431978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.88, "volume": 174491, "typical_volume": 176159.7, "trend": 14.459667, "fair_value": 12.461282, "relative_strength": -4.447245, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.992705, "energy": 19.019831, "activity_lines": [ 14.616, 14.672364, 14.545524, 14.460344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.68, "volume": 106741, "typical_volume": 153626.3, "trend": 14.449, "fair_value": 12.482308, "relative_strength": -6.734629, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.842972, "energy": 14.98778, "activity_lines": [ 14.636, 14.659273, 14.582238, 14.474559 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.8, "volume": 79549, "typical_volume": 148035.25, "trend": 14.442333, "fair_value": 12.503333, "relative_strength": -7.523567, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.027388, "energy": 24.615617, "activity_lines": [ 14.705333, 14.672, 14.626905, 14.497204 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }