{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4dcd1894-4ffc-4dca-ae01-fe2c8b30c3fb", "symbol": "ALCA", "name": "Alcoa Corporation", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 85.872, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.97, "architecture_energy": 80.189, "architecture_maturity": 17.488, "architecture_confidence": 86.757, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.91, "rotation_up": 9.61, "upward_expansion": 19.09, "deceleration": 38.32, "rotation_down": 77.61, "downward_expansion": 94.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.802001, 43.169455, 48.920602, 50.629443 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 43.150002, "trend_reference": 51.900398, "distance_from_trend": -0.1686, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 34.475637, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.251609, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.165134, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.140057, "excess_performance": -0.314304, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.1686, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048135, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.251609, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.373852, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.191651, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.410661, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.140057, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.329053, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 651, "relative_activity": 0.750908, "balance": 0.329053, "dry_up": 1.31755, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.112308, "annualized_volatility": 0.571372, "from_high_reference": -0.353655, "from_low_reference": 0.747511 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 51.900398, "fair_value_reference": 34.475637, "structural_low": 37.59, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.011343, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.003108, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.247648, "worst_return": -0.208749, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.010419, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.011635, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.258543, "worst_return": -0.28445, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.019221, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.133763, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.535687, "worst_return": -0.324309, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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55.195576, 54.477278 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 42.459999, "volume": 6244, "typical_volume": 1024.45, "trend": 52.84522, "fair_value": 34.197745, "relative_strength": -17.900837, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.079581, "energy": 67.184996, "activity_lines": [ 46.091333, 51.688189, 54.001749, 53.813172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 38.98, "volume": 1214, "typical_volume": 1056.25, "trend": 52.707559, "fair_value": 34.262538, "relative_strength": -23.289019, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -57.778302, "energy": 83.397008, "activity_lines": [ 42.760667, 48.899455, 52.515568, 52.918642 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 39.540001, "volume": 2270, "typical_volume": 991.05, "trend": 52.515843, "fair_value": 34.322777, "relative_strength": -23.370159, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.484918, "energy": 90.944659, "activity_lines": [ 40.974, 46.473637, 51.147761, 52.069122 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.310001, "volume": 434, "typical_volume": 911.05, "trend": 52.25918, "fair_value": 34.380122, "relative_strength": -23.94603, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.809167, "energy": 89.260034, "activity_lines": [ 39.981334, 44.260909, 49.812215, 51.217132 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.150002, "volume": 651, "typical_volume": 866.95, "trend": 51.900398, "fair_value": 34.475637, "relative_strength": -19.165134, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.9703, "energy": 80.18925, "activity_lines": [ 40.802001, 43.169455, 48.920602, 50.629443 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }