{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4dcdc483-c3e7-4918-8e16-e1164f6678a8", "symbol": "TMO", "name": "Time Out Group plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -75.378, "architecture_energy": 52.74, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.64, "rotation_up": 20.36, "upward_expansion": 8.03, "deceleration": 44.58, "rotation_down": 55.33, "downward_expansion": 79.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.070667, 0.071659, 0.072711, 0.074811 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.06625, "trend_reference": 0.078175, "distance_from_trend": -0.152542, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.33655, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.803149, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.679921, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.247159, "excess_performance": -0.298394, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.152542, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.130745, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.803149, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006379, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.376799, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.096207, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.247159, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.098803, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1153505, "relative_activity": 6.779421, "balance": 0.098803, "dry_up": 1.791454, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066752, "annualized_volatility": 0.154796, "from_high_reference": -0.596651, "from_low_reference": 0.104167 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.078175, "fair_value_reference": 0.33655, "structural_low": 0.06, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.035714, "positive_rate": 0.181818, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.03909, "regime_survival": 0.909091, "best_return": 0.179104, "worst_return": -0.336538, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.124294, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.16653, "regime_survival": 0.909091, "best_return": 0.177215, "worst_return": -0.460317, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.181271, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.212767, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.227848, "worst_return": -0.645833, "sufficient": true }, { 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"2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.009091, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.084906, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.104167, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.066667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.861979, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.475, "volume": 199579, "typical_volume": 256877.25, "trend": 0.430833, "fair_value": 0.4598, "relative_strength": 20.43102, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": 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"typical_volume": 145503.0, "trend": 0.079983, "fair_value": 0.344522, "relative_strength": -33.219851, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.773958, "energy": 25.962509, "activity_lines": [ 0.07325, 0.072977, 0.074201, 0.07656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0725, "volume": 29493, "typical_volume": 146135.45, "trend": 0.07945, "fair_value": 0.341878, "relative_strength": -33.727961, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.071619, "energy": 26.869262, "activity_lines": [ 0.073083, 0.072886, 0.073851, 0.076077 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0725, "volume": 34657, "typical_volume": 117472.35, "trend": 0.078917, "fair_value": 0.339234, "relative_strength": -33.07677, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.890084, "energy": 26.57543, "activity_lines": [ 0.072917, 0.072841, 0.073554, 0.075628 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.06625, "volume": 1153505, "typical_volume": 170148.0, "trend": 0.078175, "fair_value": 0.33655, "relative_strength": -37.679921, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.37788, "energy": 52.740293, "activity_lines": [ 0.070667, 0.071659, 0.072711, 0.074811 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }