{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "4dce5a27-ba66-49f4-ad17-3320e3ca8e9e",
    "symbol": "POLR",
    "name": "Polar Capital Holdings Plc",
    "exchange": "LSE",
    "country": "GB",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FTSE",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 49.529,
    "architecture_energy": 33.604,
    "architecture_maturity": 96.099,
    "architecture_confidence": 80.204,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 22.85,
        "rotation_up": 41.3,
        "upward_expansion": 68.48,
        "deceleration": 82.6,
        "rotation_down": 26.75,
        "downward_expansion": 16.14
      },
      "activity_lines": [
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        821.421148,
        778.651415
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 862.0,
    "trend_reference": 724.71489,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.189433,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 532.426033,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.619004,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 25.789766,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.390323,
    "excess_performance": 0.339087,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.189433,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.165306,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.619004,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.129496,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.257898,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.057617,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.390323,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.308532,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 3160585,
      "relative_activity": 1.684752,
      "balance": 1.308532,
      "dry_up": 1.743802,
      "accumulation_observations": 5,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.081626,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.440915,
      "from_high_reference": -0.097845,
      "from_low_reference": 0.982124
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    "levels": {
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      "fair_value_reference": 532.426033,
      "structural_low": 569.651001,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
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        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 22,
        "median_return": -0.007098,
        "positive_rate": 0.409091,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.409091,
        "median_excess_return": -0.009373,
        "regime_survival": 0.681818,
        "best_return": 0.187919,
        "worst_return": -0.138728,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 8,
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        "regime_survival": 0.5,
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        "worst_return": -0.151176,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.054298,
        "positive_rate": 0.25,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.25,
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        "sufficient": false
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        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
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        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "volume": 2522604,
        "typical_volume": 1663328.25,
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        "fair_value": 528.054651,
        "relative_strength": 32.944402,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 771.0,
        "volume": 3325039,
        "typical_volume": 1768559.8,
        "trend": 714.41489,
        "fair_value": 529.916689,
        "relative_strength": 13.729308,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 56.882614,
        "energy": 42.05645,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 862.0,
        "volume": 3160585,
        "typical_volume": 1875994.55,
        "trend": 724.71489,
        "fair_value": 532.426033,
        "relative_strength": 25.789766,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 49.529244,
        "energy": 33.60429,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}