{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4dd68d11-4a12-4829-ba1e-caf6f3b4f8e4", "symbol": "PAX", "name": "Paxman AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 88.111, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -17.966, "architecture_energy": 30.501, "architecture_maturity": 15.868, "architecture_confidence": 56.614, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.41, "rotation_up": 17.51, "upward_expansion": 18.85, "deceleration": 55.15, "rotation_down": 56.66, "downward_expansion": 46.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 47.663333, 48.295454, 49.398809, 49.279032 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 48.099998, "trend_reference": 49.25, "distance_from_trend": -0.02335, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 54.123077, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.111285, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.328907, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.068889, "excess_performance": 0.007394, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.02335, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049656, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.111285, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043025, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.243289, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064973, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.068889, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.086278, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29301, "relative_activity": 0.294354, "balance": 3.086278, "dry_up": 0.816591, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067248, "annualized_volatility": 0.343863, "from_high_reference": -0.404703, "from_low_reference": 0.173171 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 49.25, "fair_value_reference": 54.123077, "structural_low": 41.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.035988, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.038806, "regime_survival": 0.65, "best_return": 0.267742, "worst_return": -0.134686, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.104869, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.136492, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.293548, "worst_return": -0.28, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.06686, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.098429, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.228464, "worst_return": -0.346939, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.256452, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.420556, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.14794, "worst_return": -0.367347, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.29, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.078947, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.164875, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.066465, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.02521, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.01791, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.267742, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.038889, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.106667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.047337, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.281525, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.071571, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003922, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.028283, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 29.799999, "volume": 21125, "typical_volume": 28832.7, "trend": 33.956667, "fair_value": 44.726923, "relative_strength": -23.239238, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", 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"2026-07-10", "close": 48.599998, "volume": 28548, "typical_volume": 102305.45, "trend": 50.186667, "fair_value": 53.713461, "relative_strength": -25.331071, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.224282, "energy": 18.345934, "activity_lines": [ 49.259999, 50.48, 50.139523, 49.90129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 46.900002, "volume": 164048, "typical_volume": 103539.2, "trend": 49.97, "fair_value": 53.817308, "relative_strength": -26.007973, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.117999, "energy": 40.141602, "activity_lines": [ 48.32, 49.763636, 49.883333, 49.689247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 46.75, "volume": 56884, "typical_volume": 101297.35, "trend": 49.728333, "fair_value": 53.919551, "relative_strength": -26.250833, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.669073, "energy": 53.733732, "activity_lines": [ 47.603334, 49.058182, 49.632381, 49.481505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 47.950001, "volume": 74912, "typical_volume": 102152.35, "trend": 49.46, "fair_value": 54.025, "relative_strength": -24.229345, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.565503, "energy": 40.49132, "activity_lines": [ 47.556667, 48.635455, 49.510714, 49.366774 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.099998, "volume": 29301, "typical_volume": 99543.35, "trend": 49.25, "fair_value": 54.123077, "relative_strength": -24.328907, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.966164, "energy": 30.501162, "activity_lines": [ 47.663333, 48.295454, 49.398809, 49.279032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }